According to the new study, with a three-month lockdown and a protracted 10-month restoration of services, global TB incidence and deaths in 2021 would increase to levels last seen between 2013 and 2016. (Representational Image)
The global COVID-19 pandemic is having unintended yet drastic consequences on tuberculosis (TB) services, with lockdowns and limitations on diagnosis, treatment and prevention services expected to increase the annual number of TB cases and deaths over the next five years, reveals a report released on Wednesday. At least five years of progress on TB response will be lost, according to it.
The modelling analysis released by the Stop TB Partnership shows that under a three-month lockdown and a protracted 10-month restoration of services, the world could see an additional 6.3 million cases of TB between 2020 and 2025 and an additional 1.4 million TB deaths during that same period.
“We never learn from mistakes. For the past five years, TB, a respiratory disease, has remained the biggest infectious disease killer because the ‘TB agenda’ consistently became less visible in front of other priorities,” said Dr Lucica Ditiu, executive director of the Stop TB Partnership, in a statement issued on Wednesday.
The new study was commissioned by the Stop TB Partnership in collaboration with the Imperial College, Avenir Health and Johns Hopkins University, and was supported by USAID. The modeling was constructed on assumptions drawn from a rapid assessment done by The Stop TB Partnership on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related measures on the TB response in 20 high-burden TB countries — representing 54 per cent of the global TB burden.
The modeling focused on three high-burden countries — India, Kenya, and Ukraine — and extrapolated estimates from those countries to create global estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on TB.
According to the new study, with a three-month lockdown and a protracted 10-month restoration of services, global TB incidence and deaths in 2021 would increase to levels last seen between 2013 and 2016, implying a setback of at least five to eight years in the fight against TB.
To minimise the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB, save millions of lives, national governments need to take immediate measures that ensure the continuity of TB diagnostic, treatment and prevention services during the lockdown period and undertake a massive catch-up effort to actively diagnose, trace, treat and prevent TB, stated the report.
Stop TB Partnership and partners have called upon the leadership of all countries — particularly those with high TB burdens — to ensure the continuity of the TB response in the time of COVID-19, to take proactive measures that include those who are most vulnerable and to provide protection against economic hardship, isolation, stigma and discrimination.