The US would have 350\,000 deaths before July if all states reopened today\, according to new analysis

If every state in America reopened immediately, the country's death toll could reach nearly 350,000 before July, new research finds.

In the analysis, published Friday by the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, researchers forecasted the effects that reopening the country — either partially or in full — would have on deaths and job losses.

The research analyzed three different policy models: baseline, partial reopening, and full reopening. Advertisement

---

With current, or baseline, trends, where each state maintains its coronavirus policies as of April 30, the country would see 116,523 deaths by the end of June. More than 18 million jobs would be lost, according to the model.

With a partial reopening, where states "immediately lift emergency declarations, stay-at-home orders, and school closures," the research found that more than 161,000 people would die of COVID-19 in the same period and some 11.3 million jobs would be lost.

If states fully reopened, lifting all coronavirus-related measures, more than 349,000 people would die of COVID-19 in the same period, with half a million jobs lost, the model says.

---

The University of Pennsylvania analysis highlights the tension between public health measures and employment rates, as officials debate how to weigh both while deciding how to move forward with lockdown measures as the number of nationwide cases continues to rise.

"The economic costs have been enormous and we are suffering really significant, unprecedented costs as a result of these policies," Alex Arnon, a senior researcher at Wharton, told a local CBS affiliate.Advertisement

---

"How we value lives against economic outcomes, these are decisions that we need to make democratically through our elected officials," Arnon added. "We are not trying to put a value on the lives, we cannot do that, but we do want to give people and policymakers some scale of what the tradeoffs are."

The analysis comes just days after an internal White House memo said the country could expect about 200,000 coronavirus cases per day by June, the New York Times reported. The memo reportedly added that daily deaths would hit 3,000 by June 1.

Some economists have urged policymakers not to prioritize the economy over public health. Advertisement

---

"We want to do whatever we can to help states and localities get through that period – and not clamp down on the recovery," Elise Gould, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, previously told Business Insider.

"People are under the false impression that there's this dichotomy between protecting people's health and protecting people's economic wellbeing," Gould added. "That's where policymakers really need to step up more."

Read the original article on Business Insider