India’s post-COVID-19 plans that could include largescale evacuations from the Gulf may turn out to be a Herculean task, which will test New Delhi’s capacity to mobilise sufficient number of ships and planes and other essentials, including food, water and medicines, to bring citizens home.
Logistics apart, the evacuation will put India’s diplomatic heft on trial. Arranging passports, emergency certificates and other documentation when mass transit is involved has never been easy. In the past, Indian missions have managed to send home large numbers of undocumented Indians, during “general amnesty” granted periodically by the host countries, only when local communities, including philanthropists, NGOs and lawyers, worked together with missions to complete tomes of per-departure paperwork during the window. The people-skills of the mission staff have also been severely tested during these times to ensure active cooperation of the local Foreign Ministry, police and immigration officials, as well as airline staff, to grease a relatively smooth exit.
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While the scale of the proposed evacuation is blurred, The Hindu reported last week that during a meeting headed by Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba, comprising all nodal Ministries, including the participation of Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla and all Chief Secretaries of States and Union territories, the return of an estimated 2,00,000 expatriates and other travellers was discussed.
These numbers would be comparable to the Haj pilgrims who are extricated from Saudi Arabia every year. “During Haj we are able to pull out around 2,00,000 people during a 6-8 week period, running 10 flights a day that land in 10-12 airports in India,” says Talmiz Ahmad, India’s former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Oman, in a conversation with The Hindu.
But with social distancing being the new norm, an evacuation modelled on the Haj exit would no longer be feasible. Instead the pull-out plans, which are in the works, are likely to rely on a combination of ships and planes, where COVID-19 social protocols will be observed.
Navy, IAF limitations
As of now, the Navy and the Indian Air Force (IAF) are expected to spearhead the extrication. But government sources told The Hindu that there are significant limitations on the availability of assets that the Navy and the IAF can deploy for evacuation. The largest amphibious platform in the Navy is INS Jalashwa based at the Eastern Naval Command headquarters in Visakhapatnam. It can accommodate 1,000 fully equipped troops, but after factoring social distancing requirements, it can take in about 800 people, a defence source with knowledge of the matter said.
Then the five Landing Ship Tank (LST) of the Shardul class and two of Magar class “can each normally accommodate about 500 people, but with COVID-19 precautions this will likely be reduced to around 300-350,” the source said. He added that a maximum of 2-4 LSTs can be deployed after considering availability and requirements at home.
Regarding timelines, naval ships sailing from Visakhapatnam can reach the closest port in the Gulf region in around six days, but this could vary depending on the exact port of call, two Navy sources said independently.
The IAF has 12 C-130 Super Hercules medium transporters and 11 C-17 Globemaster large transport aircraft in addition to the Russian IL-76 planes. With social distancing in play, a C-130 can accommodate around 70 people, a C-17 can carry 160-170 people and an IL-76 can carry 180-190 people, another defence source said. Consequently, the civil carriers would take the lead in this effort as these planes can be more easily customised for such travel. “IAF will be on standby for any contingency as required,” the source observed.
In case all the evacuees can still not be accommodated, the pull-out mission may have to be expanded to include ferries and cruise ships, which can transport 3,000-5,000 people.
Oil price
Analysts point out that India’s longstanding and historic relationship with the six GCC countries — United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman — has entered a new cycle following the coronavirus pandemic. “The so-called Gulf boom is tapering rapidly. For at least a year, the prices of oil, the mainstay of the Gulf economies, are likely to remain low. Non-oil economies have built sufficient inventories of cheap oil in storage, which will dampen any oil price increase any time soon,” Mr. Ahmad observed. Without a pipeline of petrol-dollars benefiting the highly leveraged petrol-monarchies, Gulf countries are unlikely to undertake mega-projects requiring the free flow of inexpensive blue and white collar workers from South Asia.