How coronavirus will see 240,000 fewer people move to Australia this year - hitting house prices and pushing up unemployment
- CommSec forecasting 240,000 fewer people moving to Australia coming year
- A record 298,200 people had already left Australia in the year to June 30, 2019
- Economist Craig James said border closures to have economic consequences
- Here’s how to help people impacted by Covid-19
The coronavirus pandemic is likely to see 240,000 fewer people move to Australia during the next year.
Even before the onset of COVID-19 in China last year, a record number of people were in fact leaving Australia.
Australia is set to have immigration levels well below average for the first time since 1994, during an era of persistent double-digit unemployment.
Margin lender CommSec, which provides financing to buy shares, is predicting 240,000 fewer people will be migrating to Australia during the next year as a result of the border closure.
The coronavirus pandemic is likely to see 240,000 fewer people move to Australia during the next year. Even before the onset of COVID-19 in China, a record number of people were in fact leaving Australia. Pictured is an eerily quiet Wynyard station in Sydney on April 2, 2020
Its chief economist Craig James said this was likely to hit consumer spending and house prices, with Treasury and the Reserve Bank of Australia both predicting a 10 per cent unemployment rate.
'In a net sense, around 240,000 fewer people are likely to be coming to live in Australia over the next year,' he said in an economic note to clients.
'Clearly fewer people living here affects consumer spending for a raft of items, impacts the job market and also and has broad effects on the housing sector.
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'The longer that our borders are closed, the greater the risk that Australia will experience a slower economic rebound than other countries without the same reliance on migration.'
In the year to June 30, 2019, a record 298,200 people left Australia to live overseas, new Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed.
This period ended seven months before Australia's first coronavirus case was confirmed in Melbourne on January 25, 2020.
A year ago, Australia's immigration was running at record-high levels. When the number of people leaving Australia for good was taken into account, the net annual immigration rate stood at a five-year high of 299,190. Pictured is Sydney's Wynyard station in 2019 at peak hour
During the same annual time frame, 537,800 immigrants moved to Australia - resulting a net annual immigration pace of 239,600.
A year ago, Australia's immigration was running at record-high levels.
In the year to February 2019, a record 844,800 people came to Australia, including those on temporary visas.
When the number of people leaving Australia for good was taken into account, the net annual immigration rate stood at a five-year high of 299,190.
High immigration had long been associated with unaffordable housing in Sydney and Melbourne, with net annual levels since 2012 running above 200,000 or more than triple the 20th century average of 70,000.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison went to last year's election promising to slash Australia's net annual immigration rate from 190,000 to 160,000, a campaign promise that's easier to deliver with COVID-19.
A month before his March 2019 promise, 115,100 people arrived in Australia.
The opposite is likely to occur in 2020, following the closure of Australia's national border to non-citizens on March 20.
Australia's net annual immigration rate hasn't been well below the long-term average since 1994, when it stood at 62,800.
By April of that year, unemployment had been a double-digit levels for 32 consecutive months since September 1991.
The coronavirus pandemic is expected to push Australia's economy into a recession by the end of June for the first time in 29 years.
