Is Germany About to Undo All of Its Good Pandemic Work?

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- “Papa, papa, look! The playground is open again,” exclaimed a young girl as she gazed longingly at a group of her peers vying to be the next on the swings..On this gorgeous spring weekend the sight of Berlin children playing happily together once again was both life-affirming and terrifying. Kids aren’t the best at social distancing and we still aren’t sure how big a role they play spreading Covid-19. The city’s surprising decision to reopen its playgrounds doesn’t officially take effect until Thursday, but some families saw no reason to wait..This isn’t the only time that I’ve wondered whether Germans, though generally disciplined and supportive of physical-distancing rules, aren’t scared enough of the new coronavirus. Here’s a photograph of a Berlin park on Friday evening. . Admired for its success in containing one of the modern world’s worst pandemics, Germany is gradually exiting its self-imposed isolation. Already the streets are busier and, though harder to pinpoint, the mood feels more relaxed..How Germany navigates this treacherous path — opening up just enough to revive the economy without reigniting a second virus wave — will be watched closely in the U.S., the U.K. and other hard-hit countries. There’s a danger that the country’s comparatively fortunate crisis experience leads to overconfidence..Germany’s infrastructure can handle the next phase. Its laboratories have the capacity to conduct 136,000 tests daily, though fewer than 325,000 are conducted each week, and it’s expanding local armies of “contact tracers” to track infection chains. There are 13,000 unoccupied intensive care beds nationwide, about 40% of the total..Unusually for the meticulous Germans, the challenge is rather a question of mentality. Italians and Spaniards will never forget the appalling scenes that unfolded in their overcrowded hospitals. New Yorkers too will be haunted by the wail of sirens as ambulances ferried people to the emergency room..In contrast, Germany’s health system was never overwhelmed by coronavirus cases, in part because the outbreak affected mainly young people to begin with. Even now in Berlin, “only” about 125 of the city’s 3.6 million inhabitants have died from the disease; nationwide there have been fewer than 6,000 recorded virus deaths, about a quarter of the total in neighboring France..Germans too have suffered trauma and economic hardship. But compared to the severe social-distancing measures in places like Spain, where children were forbidden to leave the house for weeks on end, Germany’s lockdown was relatively relaxed. Gyms and nightclubs closed but weekly food markets and garden centers often stayed open. Germans were even free to take a walk with someone not from their own household provided they didn’t get too close. Enterprising Berlin establishments were happy to supply you with a takeaway cocktail to drink while you ambled..There’s now a lively political debate here about when and how to restart economic and social life, and businesses are coming up with creative ways to protect public health. Unlike in the U.S., the discussion is mostly rational and informed. .Still, it’s not hard to see why Chancellor Angela Merkel and top virologists are worried that people are being too hasty. The virus reproduction rate — the estimated mean number of people infected by each case — is only slightly below one and could easily rise again. “Nobody wants to hear it but we’re not at the end of the pandemic but rather still at the beginning,” Merkel told Germany’s parliament last week. The country is on “thin ice,” she added..Germany’s federal states have considerable autonomy, and as one state relaxes virus restrictions — perhaps because they don’t have as many infections — it creates pressure on others to follow suit. Inconsistencies and contradictions in the reopening policies risk sending the wrong signal and undermining support for the remaining restrictions..For example, from this week it’s obligatory for Germans to wear masks on public transport. But in Berlin, unlike in most federal states, masks are voluntary for adults when shopping..Smaller German stores (those with a surface area of less than 800 square meters) have reopened, which seems reasonable because they tend to attract smaller crowds. But much larger department stores have also started up again in some cities, complying with the size cap by sealing off sections of the shop floor. Similarly, some shopping malls are open as their smaller tenants return to business. Berlin’s zoo resumes service this week with a cap on the maximum number of daily visitors, new toilet door handles that visitors can open with their elbow, and a picnic ban. Meanwhile, the Bundesliga soccer league is pressing to resume fixtures behind closed doors as early as next month, despite the danger that fans will gather outside the stadium..Schools are gradually starting up again too, beginning with older kids facing exams. There’s pressure for kindergartens to do the same, even though it will be nearly impossible to keep very young kids apart. Creches are already available for an ever-expanding list of key workers..You’d expect Merkel, a scientist by training and an inherently cautious person, to keep her foot on the brake. Doing so has only helped her approval ratings, which exceed 80%. Nevertheless, the race to succeed her as chancellor could create divisions about how fast to relax the restrictions. Regional premiers Armin Laschet and Markus Soeder, who are among the favorites, have staked out different positions. Laschet wants to move faster and has criticized virologists for shifting the goalposts on when to reopen, while Soeder is more cautious (his state of Bavaria has the most cases)..Barring occasional bouts of frivolity such as Munich’s Oktoberfest, which remains cancelled, Germans are still the disciplined bunch of popular stereotype. But in view of the country’s dark history they’re acutely sensitive about infringements of rights and freedoms. They’re also quick to seize advantage when economic opportunity opens up and to make the rules work for them. This can-do spirit is the foundation of the country’s business success but could yet prove its undoing..This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners..Chris Bryant is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies. He previously worked for the Financial Times..©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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Is Germany About to Undo All of Its Good Pandemic Work?

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