Math puts worst-case scenario at 70,000 by May-end, BMC to add 3,000 ICU beds

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MUMBAI: Keeping in mind a mathematical projection that the city’s cases could hit 70,000-odd in about a month from now, the BMC is on an overdrive to set up at least 3,000 Covid-care beds for patients with moderate to severe symptoms of the viral infection, that is about 5% of the projected caseload.
The plan includes BMC’s ‘takeover’ of at least 600 beds in the state government-run G T Hospital and St George’s Hospital near CSMT. “It’s better to handle Covid-19 cases if hospitals work under one command,” said a BMC official, adding that the state government has added oxygen support and ventilators at these hospitals.
Manisha Mhaiskar, principal secretary on special deputation to the BMC to manage hospitals-related matter, said: “Based on instructions from the CM , we have prepared a plan to make 3,000 critical beds available by mid-May.”
A BMC official said the mathematical projection is based on the premise that cases in Mumbai double every 7 days. The civic team calculated the doubling rate using data of over a week to arrive at the 7-day figure. “We fear the cases could climb to 70,000 or 80,000 within a month or so,” said the official. “There’s no scientific reasons to support this mathematical calculation. But such projection helps us prepare for the worst.”
As almost 85-90% of the cases are expected to be mild — as seen across the world’s worst-hit countries such as Italy, Spain and China — the BMC wants to concentrate on building infrastructure for the estimated 5-10% worst cases. This is how the BMC arrived at the figure of 3,000 critical care beds with at least oxygen support and ventilator support.
The BMC-run Nair Hospital, converted into a Covid-only hospital a few days ago, has upscaled from 40 Covid beds to 220 at present. “We will increase this to 325 by the weekend,” said Mhaiskar.
The plan is to increase the capacity of Nair Hospital and Seven Hills Hospital in Andheri to 1,000 beds each. “We also have 125 beds in Kasturba Hospital and 140 beds in HrudaySamrat Balasaheb Thackeray Hospital in Jogeshwari,”
said Mhaiskar. Another 30 ICU beds will be added to the Jogeshwari hospital by May 1.
These beds, along with 600 state hospital beds, will make up 3,000 critical beds. “The aim is to have these beds ready by the first week of May,” said Mhaiskar.
The state government has equipped 300 beds each at St George’s Hospital and G T Hospital with oxygen supply. “We have also provided 61 ventilators at St George’s and will add 64 more in coming days,” said a state public health official. He added that J J Hospital, the largest state-run hospital in the city, has been kept out of Covid management to handle other health emergency cases.
Central team wants more tests, quarantine centres
The central team visiting Mumbai and Pune, during an interaction with CM Uddhav Thackeray, recommended increasing institutional quarantine facilities for those living in densely-packed areas like Dharavi, and more tests. They also wanted the government to ensure non-Covid patients can access medical facilities. Thackeray put in a demand for more PPE kits and said the government is working on increasing the doubling rate of cases in the state to 10 days from 7 at present.
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