LUCKNOW: The number of Covid cases in UP could touch the 3,500 mark by April end, considering the current rate at which positive cases continue to double.
Doubling time refers to the time taken for number of cases to double. A low doubling time denotes faster spread and vice-versa. India’s doubling time at present, according to Union ministry of health and family welfare, is 7.5 days. That of UP is 6.4 days.
The conclusion has been done by public health researchers Aarti and Vishwajeet Kumar on the basis of data released on Covid-19. While they suggest ramped up testing as a possible reason for the current trend, they also underscore the need to take lockdown seriously. They add that with increased testing, we may see an upswing in the number of cases temporarily, but improved testing combined with effective isolation of cases and containment will ultimately help in slowing the pandemic.
UP’s testing capacity has risen significantly in the past fortnight — from 1,200 tests per day to 3,000 samples a day. In addition, the state has launched pool testing which has also increased state’s capacity by five time.
Citing global trends, Vishwajeet says: “Besides helping surveillance, doubling time reflects on behaviour of the people. It is impossible for even big nations to lock down a population of 1.2 billion people like India. But the target becomes achievable when each person takes the responsibility.”
He adds that ultimately the doubling time is the outcome of our collective behaviour.
The experts claim that if UP is able to increase the doubling time by a day and take it to 7.4 days, the number of cases by April 30 will reduce by 500. And if it drops to 5.4 days, the number of cases will go to 4,300, which is an increase of 700 cases.
Union ministry of health and family welfare data also shows that 18 states have better doubling time than the national average. Kerala has a doubling time of 72.2 days.
Singapore-based data analyst Saikiran Kannan says: “Delhi, Gujarat, UP and MP have the fastest doubling time at the moment while Rajasthan and Maharashtra are slowing their trend.”
He also points out that Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Kerala have the slowest rates.
Doubling time refers to the time taken for number of cases to double. A low doubling time denotes faster spread and vice-versa. India’s doubling time at present, according to Union ministry of health and family welfare, is 7.5 days. That of UP is 6.4 days.
The conclusion has been done by public health researchers Aarti and Vishwajeet Kumar on the basis of data released on Covid-19. While they suggest ramped up testing as a possible reason for the current trend, they also underscore the need to take lockdown seriously. They add that with increased testing, we may see an upswing in the number of cases temporarily, but improved testing combined with effective isolation of cases and containment will ultimately help in slowing the pandemic.
UP’s testing capacity has risen significantly in the past fortnight — from 1,200 tests per day to 3,000 samples a day. In addition, the state has launched pool testing which has also increased state’s capacity by five time.
Citing global trends, Vishwajeet says: “Besides helping surveillance, doubling time reflects on behaviour of the people. It is impossible for even big nations to lock down a population of 1.2 billion people like India. But the target becomes achievable when each person takes the responsibility.”
He adds that ultimately the doubling time is the outcome of our collective behaviour.
The experts claim that if UP is able to increase the doubling time by a day and take it to 7.4 days, the number of cases by April 30 will reduce by 500. And if it drops to 5.4 days, the number of cases will go to 4,300, which is an increase of 700 cases.
Union ministry of health and family welfare data also shows that 18 states have better doubling time than the national average. Kerala has a doubling time of 72.2 days.
Singapore-based data analyst Saikiran Kannan says: “Delhi, Gujarat, UP and MP have the fastest doubling time at the moment while Rajasthan and Maharashtra are slowing their trend.”
He also points out that Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Kerala have the slowest rates.
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