Coronavirus: Which regions have been worst hit?

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London has suffered its highest number of registered deaths in a single week for more than 40 years, regional data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows.

Driven by the coronavirus outbreak, there were 2,832 deaths registered in the capital in the week ending 10 April.

That's the highest weekly number in London since February 1976.

The second highest weekly number since 1976 was recorded in the week ending 3 April this year.

Normally the number of registered deaths is falling at this time of year, and is certainly substantially lower than at the height of flu season in the winter.

But sadly the numbers in London this month are unprecedented for April.

The figures for the week of 10 April are nearly three times higher than the average for the same week over the previous five years.

We still don't know exactly how many of the excess deaths in London and other regions can be attributed to Covid-19. But ONS data suggests that on a national level it is just over three-quarters of them.

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And Professor Sally Sheard, Head of Public Health and Policy at the University of Liverpool, says it is not surprising that London has borne the brunt.

"There are similarities with how the 1918, 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics moved through British communities, with urban areas again showing the biggest impact," she says. "This reflects issues such as overcrowded housing and international travel patterns."

"But the current urban focus of Covid-19 also reflects the more recent growth of the gig economy, in which people have multiple places of work and sites of interaction."

England and Wales

The BBC has examined ONS and other government data for deaths in London going back to 1966, and data for the rest of England and Wales going back to 1993.

In every region across England and Wales registered deaths in the week of 10 April were the highest on record outside the winter months.

The ONS data records deaths in the community as well as deaths in hospital, so it paints a more accurate picture than the daily figures released by the Department of Health.

And the table above shows that registered deaths in every region of England and Wales over the past two weeks are far higher than the average that might have been expected.

It's also worth remembering that 10 April this year was Good Friday - a Bank Holiday when many registry offices were closed. So the figures released so far may not reveal the full picture - the ONS says an additional 2,000 deaths across England and Wales would be a "conservative estimate."

It is worth remembering that other regions are behind London in the curve of the pandemic, but that also means that they locked down at an earlier stage.

"Though the daily figures released by the Department of Health seem to be stabilising," says Sarah Deeny, assistant director at the Health Foundation, "these deeply concerning weekly figures from the ONS show the impact of the pandemic in London in the first half of April."

"We can be hopeful however that social distancing measures may make the trend in deaths less stark around the rest of the country."

'Too early to tell'

One of the biggest issues for policymakers over the coming weeks will be to try to establish what other factors maybe causing the current surge in excess deaths.

Further deaths from Covid-19 will continue to happen around the country despite the lockdown.

But it will also be vital to establish how many deaths may be happening because of the lockdown, if people are not getting the treatment or support they need for other health conditions.

"The steep rise in figures for the capital is reflected in the levels of pressure we have seen on hospital intensive and critical care units and ambulance services in the region," says Sarah Scobie from healthcare thinktank the Nuffield Trust.

"But it is too early to tell at this point whether deaths where Covid-19 was not mentioned are the result of some cases not being recognised as coronavirus, or a substantial increase in people dying from other conditions.

Other nations' figures

National Records Scotland releases figures on a slightly different timescale. In the week to 12 April, there were 2,020 deaths registered in Scotland, up from the five-year average of 1,100. Of those, 962 mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate.

The Glasgow area has been by far the worst hit by the virus.

In Northern Ireland for the week ending 10 April there were 435 deaths registered, up from the five-year average of 295. Covid-19 was mentioned on 162 death certificates.

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