President Donald Trump's assertion Thursday that states can begin "opening up again" by May 1 or earlier is an invitation to disaster.
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President Donald Trump's assertion Thursday that states can begin "opening up again" by May 1 or earlier is an invitation to disaster. It's clear that when it comes to understanding the science of the COVID-19 pandemic or his administration's inadequate response, the president doesn't have a clue.
That was obvious Thursday when he once again bragged about the nation's testing for coronavirus, demonstrating that he's still oblivious to the reality on the ground.
Fortunately, it's the governors who will make the decision on when to reopen their states. They are best positioned to know when sufficient safety measures are in place to justify relaxing social distancing orders.
In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom gets it. On April 14 he acknowledged that the state isn't close to meeting the criteria to roll back the state's shelter-in-place orders. The governor said that would require exponential increases in testing, followed by contact tracing and isolating those who are positive or exposed.
Newsom's approach is in line with the thinking of public health officers and scientific research. It acknowledges that the countries that are doing the best job of keeping their case and death counts low are those that have developed high-capacity testing.
Paul Romer, winner of the 2018 Nobel Prize for Economics, is emerging as an authority among the experts researching the level of testing needed to limit the spread of the virus and allow most people to go back to work and resume daily activities.
Romer's modeling suggests the United States needs to perform 22 million tests per day. With a population of 328 million, that means we would be testing roughly 6.7% of the people daily. By that standard, California would need to be conducting roughly 2.6 million tests per day for its 39 million residents.
Romer's numbers are on the high end of what scientists say is needed. But even if only half that number is required, the United States and California aren't close.
Trump bragged Thursday that the United States has now conducted 3.5 million COVID-19 tests, "more than anyone." For once, he had his numbers straight. But what he didn't say is that the country is still struggling to conduct 150,000 tests a day, nearly half the per-capita rate of the nations with the lowest number of cases and deaths.
California's numbers are even worse.
Newsom said that the state had analyzed 12,200 tests on April 14, which surpassed his task force's goal of 10,000 daily by mid-April. The task force's next goal is 25,000 tests daily by month's end, Newsom said, "and then to grow exponentially from there into May and June."
Romer believes the United States should put primary focus on enhancing testing capacity, including, for example, awarding a $1 billion prize to the university lab that first demonstrates it can handle 10 million tests a day.
The alternatives to extensive testing are continuing shelter-in-place rules or simply relaxing the orders and hoping for the best _ a death sentence for tens of thousands of Americans. Especially so for minorities, the elderly, the poor and those with underlying medical conditions that put them at higher risk.
History shows that Americans have consistently found ways to solve what seemed like insurmountable challenges. Ramping up our testing capacity is a key to opening up America again. Let's get to work.
The Mercury News (San Jose, California)