As we begin to hear estimates from public officials about reaching the peak of new cases of COVID-19 in the U.S., it will be important to filter out the white noise in the industry today and focus on the factors that will drive consumer response and an ultimate travel rebound. While previous travel downturns have been dictated by one prevailing issue (safety following 9/11, spending and unemployment during the economic downturn, etc.), the COVID-19 outbreak is different. We see three key factors dictating consumer willingness to travel:
- Perception of safety will be key, both in the type of travel and the destinations travelers choose to visit. We are monitoring these perceptions in partnership with the U.S. Travel Association every other week.
- Economic factors will ultimately drive propensity to spend among travelers, with some models suggesting it will take years to return to the RevPAR levels we had reached through 2019.
- There is a wild card factor being driven by shelter-in- place orders that may ultimately supercede the other two factors: Pent-up demand is a real consideration, especially for immediate, drive-market travel.
Click here to download the April 20 report.
Logos, product and company names mentioned are the property of their respective owners.