The battle against coronavirus has preoccupied the time and attention of the Centre and states governments for nearly two months and there are few, if any, signs of an early conclusion. Even if the pandemic’s curve flattens out, governments are in for a long haul because the economic and social costs are far too enormous to be recompensed in the short run. However, single-minded the political establishment’s involvement in the battle against the pandemic, there several critical political matters, which are now up in the air.
Uddhav Thackeray’s election: Every politician and especially one who helms a state loves to earn popular validation by winning an election. Thackeray did not contest the Maharashtra polls but was sworn in as chief minister on November 28, 2019. The Constitution stipulates that he must be elected to the legislative Assembly or Council (Maharashtra has a bicameral legislature) within six months. He completes the mandated period on May 28. Thackeray initially wanted to contest an assembly by-poll but opted for the council route. Nine seats have fallen vacant and He was keen on getting elected to the Council from Yawatmal, which was held by a Shiv Sena member, Tanaji Sawant. Sawant resigned after he won the Assembly election from Paranda. The pandemic, however, has put the council election on hold indefinitely.
To avert a constitutional crisis, the Maharashtra Cabinet will urge Governor B S Koshyari to nominate Uddhav from one of the two nominated seats in the gubernatorial quota. Will Koshyari oblige or will he await a signal from the Delhi command? “He probably will go by the state Cabinet’s recommendation because this is hardly the time to play politics,” a Mumbai political observer said.
Cabinet reshuffle: There was an expectation that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would rearrange his team after the Budget session and in time for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) 2.0’s first anniversary. Among the hopefuls was former Congressman Jyotiraditya Scindia, who joined the BJP in March. Scindia was nominated to the Rajya Sabha from Madhya Pradesh but his election as those of 17 other nominees from various states has been postponed. With the cachet he brought, Scindia’s prospective induction took centre stage in the pre-shuffle talk that has since ebbed away.
Shivraj’s Cabinet: The BJP got its government in Bhopal and Shivraj Singh Chouhan his chief minister’s post, but did the constellation of stars fall out of place in MP? Chouhan has not constituted his Cabinet and with the Covid19 cases shooting up, questions were raised how long the one-person show would last. “It will last because the Delhi bosses have no time for MP. Chouhan’s hands are tied. He has left it to the bureaucracy,” a state BJP source admitted. Another MP functionary maintained that Chouhan won’t get a go-ahead for some time because “swearing in ministers will make for bad optics when the country is suffering so much”. Over a dozen aspirants are former Congressmen, some of whom are from Scindia’s camp and switched sides with him.
Assembly by-polls: Here again, Madhya Pradesh is in focus. Although 48 seats were to go to by-polls across the country, the bulk — 24 — fell in MP. These are Congress defectors who must get re-elected within six months from the BJP, which hopes to repeat the next edition of “Operation Kamala” in Bhopal.
Hemant Soren, Jharkhand chief minister, retained Barheit but resigned from Dumka, his second constituency. He planned to field his wife, Kalpana, in the by-election. Of the four Uttar Pradesh seats, Suar Tanda was held by Abdullah Azam Khan, the son of the Samajwadi Party’s Rampur MP Azam Khan. In December 2019, the Allahabad High Court invalidated Abdullah’s election (he won in 2017) because he gave false information on his date of birth.
Like MP, the seven seats that would poll in Gujarat were held by the Congress. Its MLAs resigned and crossed over to the BJP days before the Rajya Sabha polls, which had to be postponed. The former Congress members were reportedly promised ministership in the Vijay Rupani government.
Bihar election: This is billed as 2020’s political headliner although a shambolic Opposition has already given the ruling NDA a discernible edge. Bihar became a casualty, along with Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, of a steady flow of reverse migration that was spurred by job losses caused by the national lockdown. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar refused to allow migrants to cross the border and return home. The elections are scheduled to be held in November if things plateau by then. Meanwhile, pre-election campaigning, notably a Berozgari Hatao Yatra, which the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav had proposed, never took off. Bihar, like the rest of India, only thinks of Covid19 and the economic fallout.
Monsoon session: Will Parliament’s Monsoon session be convened in July or deferred? “It’s too early to think about it,” a central minister said.