The catastrophe caused by the novel coronavirus reminds us of the Black Death that devastated Europe and wiped out half its population in the 14th century.
COVID-19 is the latest in a series of pandemics that send shivers across the world. The paradox is that it united a contradictory world but divided people. It does not discriminate between believer and atheist and white and black. It is unseen yet powerful, living yet unseen, far yet close. It is an untold story of everything from science to god, medicine to economics, and culture to religion.
The world was largely unprepared for the pandemic and is still dangerously incompetent in fighting it. Virologists, pharmacologists and biologists, everyone is clueless.
Some take it as divine punishment, while others blame the Chinese for their eating habits. The bad news is that a huge chunk of population may die, but the good news is that modern civilisation is more sophisticated and advanced to fend off a fatal blow.
The greatest challenge, however, is to fight the financial and economic impact because it is the markets that are places of opportunity, feed trillions and buy our services, ideas and patents.
Unlike the financial crises of 2008, the crises now are quite different as central banks need to look beyond filling pockets with money because such a step would not generate demand when markets are inaccessible. The broken demand-supply chain is ruining markets, but the actual shock could be much bigger than grim statistics.
Domino effect
What kind of game plan is needed to get through this deep pothole? How about the survival of industries dependent on the global supply chain? Globalisation has twisted the supply chain so deeply that if there are issues specifically in an exporting country like China or the U.S., it would be felt massively across the globe. How the impact on the workforce, particularly hourly and daily wagers, would be dealt with? Where does India stand in this global crisis and how shall it become a $5 trillion economy by 2024?
Precisely, it may be another worst economic nightmare of the 21st century that will not only test the competence of doctors and scientists but will also assess the endeavours of the political and corporate leadership. The downturn in spending and investment will drive businesses to slow down production and eventually retrench people. Markets will turn out to be deserted places, and suicides may radically increase. It does not matter if a country is in the early or later stages of the epidemic; what matters is how it is responding?
The U.S. Center for Disease and Control has already warned about the diseases and dangers caused by rodents. The world is investing billions of dollars to fight the pandemic, but again the question to be asked is how does a virus cause global disarray? Let’s give it serious thought before a new black swan can stretch the world mercilessly.
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