Intermittent social distancing measures necessary till 2022, states study by Harvard scientists

Even as several countries around the world are under strict lockdowns to make people follow social distancing measures, a study by scientists from Harvard has said repeated periods of social distancing will be required till 2022 to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.

According to a report by Science Alert, the Harvard team's computer simulation, has determined that the virus might become seasonal with higher transmission rates during colder months.

The study, which was published as a paper in the journal Science, stated, however, that much remains unknown regarding the virus, including the level of immunity in those who have contracted it and how long it lasts.

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"We found that one-time social distancing measures are likely to be insufficient to maintain the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 within the limits of critical care capacity in the United States," Stephen Kissler, lead author of the paper said, adding that in the absence of other sorts of treatments, intermittent social distancing periods seem necessary.

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This, according to the study, would allow hospitals time to increase their critical care capacity to tend to the surge of cases that would emerge when the lockdown measures are eased.

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The report also states that according to the study, too much social distancing, too, would be a bad thing. One of the modeled scenarios suggested that the social distancing measures were effective to the extent that "virtually no population immunity is built".

However, the study has said that all things considered, a vaccine will remain the solution to beat the outbreak since it is unlikely that the immunity will last long enough for COVID-19 to die out after an initial wave.