'People have to get sick': New plan to expose young, healthy Australians to coronavirus by easing social distancing restrictions 'at a gentle pace' in a bid to boost immunity
- Social distancing rules could be loosened to expose Australians to COVID-19
- COVID-19 infections continue to drop across the country following strict rules
- Controlled exposure to virus could allow society to return to normal faster
Social distancing measures would be loosened to expose young and healthy Australians to coronavirus in a bid to lift immunity rates under a new plan being considered by health officials.
COVID-19 infections continue to drop across the country after state and federal governments shut borders, closed businesses and enforced tough social distancing and self-isolation restrictions.
Health officials are now considering a long-term strategy for how to deal with the virus if a vaccine does not become available soon.
This could involve an easing of restrictions to expose healthy Australians to the virus at a rate that would not overwhelm hospitals while also increasing immunity.
Those considered less vulnerable or less likely to die, such as schoolchildren and young people, could have social-distancing restrictions relaxed first, in an effort to increase herd immunity for the whole country.
Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy said while the virus could be eradicated by imposing lockdowns until infection rates fell to zero, the majority of the population would still be susceptible to the virus.
Without increased immunity rates in the community, aggressive border controls would be needed for 'a long time' after lockdowns were lifted, he said.
Social distancing measures could be loosened to expose young and healthy Australians to deadly coronavirus in a bid to to lift immunity rates. Pictured: Beachgoers at Cronulla on Monday
COVID-19 infections continue to drop across the country, after the government shut borders, closed businesses and enforced strict social distancing rules. Pictured: A sign reminds people to stay 1.5 metres away from others
NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard and Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant held a discussion with MPs last week where concerns were flagged over community immunity.
One MP said they were advised NSW would be disadvantaged if the state attempted to contain the virus entirely.
'If that was the approach, we'd end up with a large portion of the population who are still susceptible, with no immunity,' the MP told The Australian.
'People have to get sick for this to pass.'
Without a vaccine to tackle the virus, controlled exposure to COVID-19 could allow society to return to normal faster.
Share this article
A NSW health official said controlling the spread of coronavirus was still a priority to ensure the health system is not stretched to treat patients.
But social-distancing restrictions could be partially eased for groups less susceptible to severe COVID-19 symptoms, including schoolchildren and younger people.
'We do need it to go through the community at a gentle pace,' the official said.
Pictured: Australia's coronavirus infection rate from February 27 to April 7
But NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said social distancing rules to limit the spread of the virus would stay in place even when other restrictions are lifted.
'No matter what restrictions there are in the future, no matter what restrictions are potentially eased in the future, until a vaccine is found, social distancing is a way of life now,' she told reporters on Tuesday.
NSW recorded another 49 cases on Tuesday - down from the 57 announced on Monday - bringing the total confirmed cases to 2686.
'The number of new cases in NSW continues to stabilise and even decline,' Ms Berejiklian said.
'However, we are still increasingly concerned about the community-to-community transmission ... people who are getting the virus from a source that is not known to us.'
NSW Health says there are 406 locally-acquired cases with an unknown source.
So far 48 people have died from coronavirus in Australia, including seven deaths confirmed on Tuesday
The nation's leaders and health experts are warning people it is vital they stick by social distancing rules and stay at home over the Easter weekend.
The daily increase in new cases has dropped to about three per cent on average.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that had bought valuable time but Australians could not afford to be complacent.
'This Easter weekend will be incredibly important. Stay at home,' Mr Morrison said on Tuesday.
'Failure to do so this weekend will completely undo everything we have achieved so far together, and potentially worse.'
All the same messages - stay at home unless absolutely necessary, wash your hands regularly, and keep 1.5m away from others - still applied.
'When you normally may go out together as family and be out in public places and parks or gone away or wherever you might have been - that is not something you can do this Easter long weekend,' Mr Morrison said.
Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy doubled down on this message, saying Australians had to maintain their vigilance.
'The thing that worries us most of all is the more than 500 people who have acquired this virus from someone in the community that doesn't know they've had it,' he said.
'That is why we cannot relax what we've been doing.
What does the coronavirus modelling show?
If no measures are taken
The theoretical modelling finds an uncontrolled COVID-19 pandemic scenario would overwhelm our health system for many weeks. 89 per cent of people would catch the virus, with 38 per cent requiring some medical care.
ICUs would be stretched well beyond capacity for a prolonged period. Only 15 per cent of people requiring ICU beds would be able to access one, even with the expanded ICU capacity in the model.
This graph shows three scenarios based on no restrictions (grey), quarantine (light blue) and social distancing (dark blue)
With quarantine and isolation
Quarantine and isolation would reduce the proportion of people who would catch the virus to 68 per cent, and those needing medical care to 29 per cent. Only an estimated 30 per cent of people requiring ICU beds would be able to access them.
With social distancing restrictions
If social distancing measures reduces transmission by 25 per cent, the proportion of people infected would be 38 per cent with 16 per cent requiring some medical care.
Eighty per cent of people who need ICU beds could access them.
With a 33 per cent reduction in transmission due to social distancing, the proportion of people infected is 12 per cent and only five per cent require some medical care.
In that scenario, everyone who needs an ICU bed over the course of the pandemic could access one.
The modelling finds our ICUs will cope if we continue to have effective social distancing, increase our health system capacity, and isolate people with the virus and their close contacts.
This table shows the proportion of each age group who require hospitalisation if they are infected with the disease
Premier Gladys Berejiklian said social distancing rules to limit the spread of the virus would stay in place even when other restrictions are lifted
'We've seen what this virus can do in a cruise ship, at a wedding. It can spread to 30, 50, several hundred people very quickly.'
New polling from Essential Research finds more people have changed their behaviour to follow social distancing rules than a week ago, but those aged between 18 and 34 are lagging behind their older compatriots.
Almost 6,000 Australians have been infected with the coronavirus and 49 have died, while about 2,500 have recovered.
The government continues to work on the basis the tough restrictions and economic support for businesses suffering under them will only need to be in place for six months.
It released the Doherty Institute modelling that has underpinned the national cabinet's decisions.
But Mr Morrison cautioned the models were highly theoretical, not based on Australian case data, and did not predict what might happen here.
The modelling showed that if nothing had been done to stop the disease's spread in its early days, about 23 million people could have been infected and intensive care units overwhelmed by up to 35,000 patients.
Experts are now working on modelling specific to the Australian situation based on how and where the virus has spread so far.
Pictured: Beachgoers follow social distancing rules by distancing themselves on the sand at Cottesloe Beach in Perth on Monday
