US: Pandemic appears to be ebbing even as death toll rises

Chidanand Rajghatta | TNN | Apr 7, 2020, 21:57 IST

WASHINGTON: Helped by mitigation steps such as social distancing and isolation/quarantine of infected and potentially infected, the coronavirus pandemic appears to be ebbing. Although there was uptick in Monday’s death toll (1321) in the US after a sharp downswing on Sunday (1147 dead) after Saturday’s peak (1497 dead), there is an overall sense that the pandemic is not out of control, and it is being reigned in.
While critics of the government approach of shutting down the economy to contain the pandemic allege that the infection and death projections were exaggerated or inflated and such a lockdown was not necessary, those who persuaded the administration to adopt the policy say mitigation is what appears to be working – for now. In fact, Dr Anthony Fauci, the infectious disease specialist who has become the face of war on the pandemic, says the world will never get back to the pre-coronavirus normal because the threat will remain even after vaccines and therapies are approved, including the prospect of a seasonal return of the virus. There have been some reports, notably one from South Korea, that some patients who had recovered from Covid-19 tested positive once again.
But on the positive side, China on Tuesday announced no new deaths for the first time since it began regularly reporting figures in January, although Chinese data and claims are now met with a degree of skepticism. At least one US model revised its estimates of infections and needs downwards, saying the country may need fewer hospital beds, ventilators and other equipment than previously projected and that some states may reach their peak of Covid-19 deaths sooner than expected.
New York, the epicenter of the pandemic in the US, New York reported 599 new deaths Monday, a little over Sunday’s count of 594 and down from 630 on Saturday. And at the time of writing this report, the U.S stock market was extending its gains for a second day in a row on news that humankind may be getting a grip on the virus. Among President Trump's many tweets over the past 48-hours:
We are learning much about the Invisible Enemy. It is tough and smart, but we are tougher and smarter!" and in all caps, "LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL."
The overall death toll in the US though is nearing 12,000 with the projected peak per day deaths of about 3000 still some 10 days away. But experts are also developing a better understanding of the pathogen with more data coming in all the time, including studies that show children are affected much less than adults notwithstanding a few reports of child deaths. In the US at least, there appears to be greater number of death among minorities and less affluent, ostensibly on account of their much greater exposure and inability to practice social distancing because of economic needs.
President Trump meanwhile continues to feud with the media over his handling of the crisis and his prescriptions, with a new report that he had ignored his own acolytes’ warning about the gravity of the upcoming crisis as early as January.
It now turns out that the White House trade adviser Peter Navarro has warned of a "full-blown pandemic, imperiling the lives of millions of Americans" from the coronavirus. "The lack of immune protection or an existing cure or vaccine would leave Americans defenseless in the case of a full-blown coronavirus outbreak on US soil," Navarro had recorded in a memo, adding more than 500,000 Americans could die in a worst-case scenario.
But Trump continued to downplay the pandemic well into February, including during his trip to India on February 24-25. More recently, the US President has suggested he played cheerleader so as to not alarm people.