A CII survey, in which nearly 200 CEOs participated, says that a majority of the firms expect revenues to fall more than 10% and profits by over 5% in the January-March 2020 and April-June 2020 quarters.

A decline in demand and impact on jobs will be some of the other after-effects for the industry in the backdrop of the COVID-19 outbreak and the subsequent countrywide lockdown, a release from the CII on the CEOs Snap Poll said.

Stating that the pandemic was bound to deeply impact the economy, the CII said that the expectations of a sharp decline in both revenue and profit growth by the domestic firms could foretell the significant impact of the virus on GDP growth.

The CII said that 80% of the firms claimed that their inventory was lying idle at present. However, more than 40% of the firms expected their stocks to last beyond a month once the lockdown ends, indicating their expectations of a demand slowdown in the post lockdown period.

A majority of the firms engaged in production of essential products and supply of ancillary goods are facing constrained operations in production and supply of essential goods and services during the ongoing lockdown.

According to the release, for the firms, access to manpower and movement of products had emerged as a major constraint in essentials trade, be it manufacturing or warehousing and transport or retail sales of essential commodities.

“While the Central Government has allowed manufacture, transportation and distribution of essentials, the enforcement at the local level has implemented the lockdown on essential commodities as well as services,” the release said.

Job cuts

About 52% of the firms anticipate job losses in their respective sectors following the COVID-19 outbreak and the consequent lockdown.

The release said the proportion of jobs that are expected to be cut are quite staggered – 47% of the firms expect a less than 15% job loss, while 32% firms expect to shed about 15-30% of jobs once the lockdown ends.

CII Director General Chandrajit Banerjee underscored the need for the government to come up with a fiscal stimulus package for the industry and implement it on a fast-track mode.