No bloc managed to win a clear majority in Monday’s Israeli parliamentary election, the third in 12 months, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emerged the clear leader to bid for government formation. When 99% of the votes were counted, his Likud party won 36 seats, while its rival, former General Benny Gantz’s Blue and White got 33. The Prime Minister’s right-religious coalition, which includes Shas, United Torah Judaism and Yamina, has 58 seats, three short of a majority in the 120-member Knesset. Yisrael Beiteinu, led by secular nationalist Avigdor Lieberman — kingmaker after the last two polls but who chose not to support any side — got 7 seats. For Mr. Netanyahu, this was a referendum of sorts. If he fought the last two polls under the threat of being charged for corruption, this time he had already been charged. He is expected to appear in court later this month. Still, Likud improved its tally from 32 in September to 36 now. While Mr. Netanyahu, as leader of the largest party and the coalition, is expected to be invited to form the government, it will not be easy for him to prove a majority in Parliament. Mr. Gantz has ruled out a unity government under Mr. Netanyahu’s leadership. Mr. Lieberman too has dismissed joining the Likud coalition, not wanting to share power with the bloc’s Jewish religious parties. The Joint List, the coalition of Arab parties, has won 15 seats, but Israel’s mainstream Zionist parties will not have any tie-up with them.

Despite these challenges, there are two factors favouring Mr. Netanyahu. One, unlike the September election in which Mr. Gantz’s party got more seats, this time only Mr. Netanyahu is in the race to form the government. It is either a Likud government or a fourth poll. Second, after three back-to-back elections, some rival lawmakers could actually back Mr. Netanyahu’s claim to avoid another round of polling. Likud leaders have already signalled that their coalition would prove a majority in the Knesset with dissenters’ votes. While Mr. Netanyahu remains the only option for providing Israel a stable government, his return to power with a majority could spell more trouble for the Palestinians. The peace process has been stalled for years. The Palestinians have rejected the U.S.’s peace plan, which they say favours the Israeli positions. During the campaign, Mr. Netanyahu had pledged to annex Jewish settlements on the Palestinian West Bank. If his coalition returns to power with a clear majority, he is likely to press ahead with the annexation, deepening the crisis. If he fails to win the vote of confidence, Israel will go to another election and during the campaign, Mr. Netanyahu and his allies will step up their right-wing agenda and attacks on the Palestinians, like they did during the last two campaigns. Either way, troubled times lie ahead for the region.