Coronavirus would kill 21,000 Australians and slash $42billion off the GDP if the country was hit by a mild outbreak, shock study finds

  • New study concludes mild coronavirus pandemic could kill 21,000 Australians
  • A more severe outbreak could wipe out 68million globally and 96,000 locally
  • So far the disease has infected 90,932 people and killed at least 3,125 globally
  • On Tuesday, Australia registered its 34th victim - a 20-year-old Chinese student 

A new study into the severity of coronavirus has determined even a mild outbreak in Australia could kill 21,000 people.

So far the disease has infected an estimated 90,932 people in 76 countries around the world. 

At least 3,125 have died - primarily in mainland China, where the outbreak originated.

But research undertaken by former Reserve Bank of Australia's Warwick McKibbin suggests a global pandemic would be catastrophic for the human population.

The global coronavirus death toll surpassed 3,000 following a sudden spike in Italian cases

The global coronavirus death toll surpassed 3,000 following a sudden spike in Italian cases

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced the Federal Government will soon release a strategy outlining plans to help deal with the economic impact of the global coronavirus outbreak

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced the Federal Government will soon release a strategy outlining plans to help deal with the economic impact of the global coronavirus outbreak

Passengers from a China Cruise Ship are seen arriving at Sydney Opera House with no health screen checks amid fears of the coronavirus outbreak on February 27

Passengers from a China Cruise Ship are seen arriving at Sydney Opera House with no health screen checks amid fears of the coronavirus outbreak on February 27

A severe outbreak could wipe out 68million people worldwide, including 96,000 Australians.

Even a mild pandemic could kill 21,000 Australians and 15million globally. 

The financial blow to the nation would also be devastating, the study concluded.

Australia’s gross domestic product would be slashed by at least two percentage points at best, which equates to about $42billion in 2020 alone.  

The new research comes as medics in Australia diagnosed a 34th local case of coronavirus on Tuesday.

Australian evacuees who were quarantined on Christmas Island over concerns about the COVID-19 coronavirus arrive at Sydney Airport in Sydney, Monday, February 17

Australian evacuees who were quarantined on Christmas Island over concerns about the COVID-19 coronavirus arrive at Sydney Airport in Sydney, Monday, February 17

Australians have been advised to avoid all travel to Iran (pictured, a hospital in Tehran) after more than 60 people died of coronavirus in the country

Australians have been advised to avoid all travel to Iran (pictured, a hospital in Tehran) after more than 60 people died of coronavirus in the country 

A 20-year-old Chinese student arrived in Australia after 'self-quarantining' in Dubai for 14 days carrying the disease.

The student is currently in a stable condition in isolation in the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital. 

He was living in the Brisbane suburb of Toowong with a male housemate, who is now being assessed for the disease. 

Shortly after the 34th case was announced, Prime Minister Scott Morrison revealed Australia is considering travel bans for South Korea and Italy.

Speaking on Tuesday, Mr Morrison asked for a reassessment of travel and border control arrangements for higher risk groups in those countries.

'I would note that those cases are quite different to some of the others because we are dealing with more advanced health systems in those places,' he told reporters in Canberra.

Pictured: Flight attendants wearing face masks and gloves after a disembarking a plane

Pictured: Flight attendants wearing face masks and gloves after a disembarking a plane

'We will continue to look to the health advice, which has not been - up until this point - to make any changes to those arrangements.'

The prime minister also consulted with supermarket giants Coles and Woolworths to discuss concerns over panic buying and dwindling supplies.

On Tuesday, the World Health Organisation admitted the world was now in 'unchartered territory', with the virus now spreading much more rapidly outside China than within the country.

 Almost nine times as many cases had been reported in the past 24 hours beyond China than inside, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, adding that the risk of coronavirus spreading was now very high at a 'global level'.

He said outbreaks in South Korea, Italy, Iran and Japan were of greatest concern.

'We are in uncharted territory - we have never seen before a respiratory pathogen that is capable of community transmission,' he told a news briefing in Geneva.

CORONAVIRUS CASES IN AUSTRALIA - 34

NEW SOUTH WALES: 13 

January 25 

Three men aged 43, 53, and 35 who had recently travelled to China contracted the disease.

Two flew in from Wuhan while the other arrived in Sydney from Shenzhen, south China.

They were treated in isolation at Westmead Hospital. 

January 27  

A 21-year-old woman is identified as the fourth person to test positive for the illness in NSW.

The woman, a student at UNSW, flew into Sydney International Airport on flight MU749 on January 23 and presented to the emergency department 24 hours later after developing flu-like symptoms.

March 1 

A man in his 40s is confirmed as the fifth coronavirus case in the state and a woman in her 50s as the sixth. Both returned to Sydney from Iran. 

March 2 

The 41-year-old sister of a man who had returned from Iran with the disease was one of three confirmed cases. The second locally-acquired case was a 53-year-old male health worker who hadn't travelled for many months.

The other new case is a 31-year-old man who flew into Sydney on Saturday from Iran and developed symptoms 24 hours later.

March 3

Four more cases are confirmed in NSW. They included a 39-year-old man who had flown in from Iran and a 53-year-old man who had flown in from Singapore last Friday.

Two more cases involving two women aged in their 60s who arrived in Sydney from South Korea and Japan respectively were also confirmed.

VICTORIA: 9

January 25  

A Chinese national aged in his 50s becomes the first confirmed case of the coronavirus in Australia.

The man flew to Melbourne on China Southern flight CZ321 from Wuhan via Guangzhou on January 19.

He was quarantined at Monash Hospital in Clayton in Melbourne's east.

January 29   

A Victorian man in his 60s is diagnosed with the coronavirus.

He became unwell on January 23 - two days after returning from the Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.

The man was confirmed as positive on January 29 and was subsequently seen by doctors at the Monash Medical Centre.

January 30 

 A woman in her 40s is found to have coronavirus.

She was visiting from China and mostly spent time with her family.

She is being treated at Royal Melbourne Hospital. 

February 1 

A woman in her 20s in Melbourne is found to have the virus. 

February 22

Two passengers taken off the Diamond Princess cruise ship test positive. 

February 25

Another passenger taken off the cruise ship tests positive. 

March 1

Victorian man confirmed to have coronavirus after the 78-year-old was evacuated to Melbourne from a Darwin quarantine centre.

It is confirmed a Victorian woman in her 30s has tested positive for coronavirus after flying from Malaysia to Melbourne via Indonesia.

QUEENSLAND: 10

January 29

Queensland confirms its first case after a 44-year-old Chinese national was diagnosed with the virus. He is being treated at Gold Coast University Hospital.

January 30

A 42-year-old Chinese woman who was travelling in the same Wuhan tour group as the 44-year-old man tests positive. She is in Gold Coast University Hospital in stable condition.

February 4

An eight-year-old boy was diagnosed with coronavirus. He is also from the tour group where the other Queensland cases came from.

February 5

A 37-year-old man, who was a member of a group of nine Chinese tourists in quarantine on the Gold Coast, also tested positive.

February 6  

A 37-year-old woman was diagnosed with coronavirus from the same travel group that flew to Queensland from Melbourne on January 27.

February 21 

Two Queensland women, aged 54 and 55, tested positive for COVID-19 and will be flown to Brisbane for further treatment.

A 57-year-old woman from Queensland also tested positive for the virus.

February 28

A 63-year-old woman was confirmed to have the virus after returning to the Gold Coast from Iran.

March 3

A 20-year-old man from China was confirmed as the tenth person to be infected by the coronavirus in Queensland. The man had travelled to Dubai for at least 14 days before entering Australia, via Brisbane on February 23. 

SOUTH AUSTRALIA: 3

February 1  

A Chinese couple in their 60s who arrived in Adelaide from Wuhan to visit relatives are confirmed to have coronavirus.

A 24-year-old woman from South Australia was transferred to Royal Adelaide Hospital.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA: 2

February 21 

A 78-year-old man from Western Australia was transferred to Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital in Perth. On February 28, he was taken into intensive care in a 'serious' condition.

March 1 

The elderly man died in the early hours of the morning from the virus at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital.

TASMANIA: 1  

March 2

The man who travelled from Iran to Australia on Saturday tested positive for COVID-19.

DIAMOND PRINCESS CRUISE SHIP: 10  

Of the cases in Australia, ten contracted the disease on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which had gone into quarantine in the Japanese port of Yokohama.

They tested positive for the coronavirus after arriving at the Manigurr-ma Village Howard Springs facility in Darwin, and nine are now being treated in their home states.

DEATHS: 1 

March 1 

A man in his 70s died at a Perth hospital. He was a passenger on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship.

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Coronavirus pandemic could kill 21,000 Australians and 68million globally, study finds

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