Experts warn of global coronavirus pandemic and local sport cancellations
Leading Australian scientists have warned that major football games and concerts could be cancelled and schools closed as a coronavirus pandemic appears increasingly likely.
Large outbreaks in Italy, Japan, Iran and South Korea were reported in the past few days, suggesting containment measures have not stopped the spread of COVID-19, several scientists told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.
A disinfection worker prepares to disinfect a subway station in Seoul.Credit:Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
“Things have changed over the past 48 hours quite remarkably,” said Professor Nigel McMillan, an infectious diseases expert at Menzies Health Institute in Queensland.
“We are now in a situation where I think everyone is coming to the conclusion the chances of a pandemic are very high.”
People with chronic illnesses should consider stocking up on a supply of essential medications, senior epidemiologists across Australia have warned.
“In the beginning, there was an expectation containment would work,” said Professor Ian Mackey, an infection expert at the University of Queensland.
But it is now clear the virus, unlike earlier respiratory disease outbreaks SARS and MERS, can readily spread through coughing and sneezing.
“This is a proper respiratory virus, with all the bells and whistles,” Professor Mackey said. On average every infected person infects between two and four others.
An outbreak in Australia “might mean closing schools, stopping [football] games, all manner of impacts that will change our way of life for some time – should things get that far,” he said.
The World Health Organisation has yet to declare COVID-19 a pandemic – a disease that spreads across the globe – but the outbreaks in Italy, South Korea and Iran suggest moves to contain the highly infectious disease using travel bans and lockdowns have not worked.
The coronavirus epidemic has infected almost 80,000 people and killed more than 2600.
Is it a pandemic?
Whether or not to use the "P" word has experts and officials in a frenzy.
According to the World Health Organisation, a pandemic, colloquially, refers to "a new pathogen that spreads easily from person to person across the globe".
But while the authority has already declared COVID-19 a global health emergency of international concern, it has so far stopped short of ruling it has hit pandemic stage.
The WHO says it now assesses such outbreaks under a different "phasing system" than the one used during the 2009 swine flu pandemic.
And while further investment from countries is still needed to stop the spread of COVID-19, WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus believes the window to contain the virus has not yet closed.
A sudden eruption of cases in Italy – from five to more than 150 by Sunday – forced authorities there to lock down 10 towns, close schools and cancel sporting events.
In South Korea, the government issued a "red alert" after cases rose to more than 760.
Japan is fighting more than 800 cases, and eight people are dead from the virus in Iran.
These outbreaks suggest the virus is spreading undetected, probably by people who are infected but not showing symptoms.
Professor Lyn Gilbert, senior researcher at the University of Sydney's Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, said the virus would spread throughout Australia “sooner or later”. She said a pandemic was possible but not certain.
Australia’s Chief Medical Officer, Professor Brendan Murphy, said the notable increase in reported cases was cause for “significant concern”.
“There is no reason for people to feel concerned at present, but we are certainly aware of developments and because of the risks posed by international developments we are preparing as a nation,” he said.
“We have a global pandemic plan, which is based on our pre-existing and long-practised pandemic influenza plan, and we are certainly preparing as a nation for every eventuality.”
Chief Health Officer Brendan Murphy speaks to the media in Canberra on Monday.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen
Health Minister Greg Hunt said Australia was well prepared for any increase in cases. There is no sign the virus is spreading in Australia.
But Victoria’s Chief Health Officer, Brett Sutton, took to social media on Sunday to say a “pandemic is very likely, if not inevitable”.
For now, Victoria remained in containment mode, he said.
Meanwhile, hospitals across Australia are starting to prepare for the surge in patients a pandemic would cause.
Medical personnel scan a new coronavirus patient at a hospital in Wuhan in central China's Hubei province. Credit:AP
“Everyone is looking at those figures [from overseas] with alarm,” said Professor Allen Cheng, director of the infection prevention unit at Alfred Health.
He said Australia’s hospitals were looking at the healthcare response in Japan and South Korea to see how they were coping.
“In Japan, it’s been a little bit stretched,” he said. “They’ve had to distribute cases out to different Japanese hospitals. That’s what we’d be doing as well.”
Australia’s aged-care system appears to face the biggest threat.
Coronavirus poses a very small risk to healthy people aged under 60.
“They will have an unremarkable illness comparable to a common cold,” Professor McMillan said.
But the virus’ mortality rate rises sharply for those over 60, and for those with heart disease, diabetes or lung disease.
“We have to continue to try our best,” said Professor Peter Doherty, a virus expert and Nobel Laureate.
“The longer we can delay or contain any major incursion, the closer we will be to a protective vaccine.”
“Keeping it out, though, is a big ask.”
With Sherryn Groch