1. ASHOK LEYLAND: Below-estimate; Tough 3Q, 1HFY21 outlook weak too due to BS6
- Focus on cost and cash flow in a tough operating environment
- The third quarter turned out to be more challenging than expected. While the 1HFY21 outlook is weak given BS6 transition-related challenges, AL’s focus on adding new revenue and profit pool bodes well for a stronger recovery from 2HFY21.
- Cut EPS estimate by 41%/14% for FY20/21 to factor in the weak demand scenario and RM cost inflation. However, we maintain Buy on the back of the prospects of a strong recovery 2HFY21 onward.
2. SAIL: Weak realization impacts profitability
- AIL’s third quarter result reflects the challenges faced by industry, with EBITDA/ton down 69% YoY at INR2,439 due to a sharp decline in steel prices.
- Prices have recovered in the past three months, strengthening the margin outlook. We estimate EBITDA/t to improve to ~INR5,000 in 4QFY20. There is no change to our FY20/21 EBITDA estimates and we maintain Neutral.
- Revenue was up 17% QoQ at INR165b (our estimate: INR137b) due to higher sales volumes (+30% QoQ to 4.1mt v/s our estimate of 3.2mt) helped by increased exports. Crude steel production, however, was up only 3.4% QoQ at 4.0mt, implying significant inventory dilution in the quarter.
- Steel demand has improved since November, supporting price hikes. SAIL’s net steel realization (NSR) stood at INR35,310/t in 3QFY20 (v/s INR37,382/t in 2QFY20) and higher at INR37,700/t in Feb’20.
3. GLENMARK PHARMA: India/LATAM drives while US drag earnings
- Healthy traction in existing products and addition of in-licensed products facilitated robust growth in India/LATAM. However, the benefit was more than offset by intensified competition in key products in US generics.
- We maintain our EPS estimate for FY20/21/22. While the US generics business has a strong ANDA pipeline and the DF/Europe/API outlook remains promising, the return ratios are yet to improve meaningfully. Maintain Neutral.
- Sales were up 5.1% YoY at INR26.4b (in-line), led by India (+18.2% YoY to INR7.9b; 30% of sales) and LATAM (+54.1% YoY to INR1.6b; 6% of sales) as well as API segment (+9.6% YoY to INR2.6b; 10% of sales).
4. LEMON TREE HOTELS: New hotels drive performance
- LEMONTRE reported a strong performance at its existing hotels, where RevPAR growth of 7.5% YoY led to a 19% YoY increase in EBITDA. Consol. EBITDA performance was mainly driven by new hotels (absent in the base quarter) as they formed 46% of incremental EBITDA.
- For FY20, we cut our revenue estimate by 6% (to factor in the 16% miss to our estimate in 3QFY20) but maintain our EBITDA estimate. For FY21/22, our estimates remain unchanged.
- Revenue increased 39% YoY to INR1,996m (our estimate: INR2,362m), led by inventory addition (absent in base quarter), contribution from ‘Keys Hotels’ acquisition, and ARR growth. Reported EBITDA grew 66% YoY to INR812m (our estimate: INR829m), while like-to-like EBITDA (adj. for Ind-AS 116) grew 48% YoY to INR725m. Adj. PAT declined 2% YoY to INR122m. For 9MFY20, revenue/like-to-like EBITDA/PAT growth stood at 24%/25%/(59%).
You must log in to post a comment.