Race-by-race tips and preview for Muswellbrook on Tuesday
Track heavy 9/10 and rail out 6m from 1000m to 300m into a cut/away so likely on or near the speed early before gradual trend to the outside
Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1000m)
Big and open field of maidens on a very heavy track to kick us off. One of the debutants, three-year-old Dubbo gelding 4. Toulon Factor (The Factor x Toulon Bay by More Than Ready) gets conditions to suit judging by his second of two trials when sitting outside the leader at Gilgandra on a heavy 8 sweeping away to win by more than three lengths, with four lengths back to the third horse, and the time was good. Blinkers are on.
Dangers: The lone two-year-old in the field, 14. Shahi from the in-form Maher-Eustace stable can go close second-up after finishing off OK at Kembla, and in well at the weights after rider's claim. Has trialled nicely in soft 6 ground, and sire was very good on wet tracks. Scone three-year-old gelding and first starter 3. Brash (Murtajill x Sweet Starlet by Starcraft) has trialled big, ridden out to finish over the top in the latest. Draws the inside, and bred to handle conditions on the dam's side. Tamworth three-year-old gelding 1. Halcyon House was big odds when finishing hard on debut at Scone, and was scratched from Newcastle on Monday to be saved for this. Gosford three-year-old filly 5. Last Chance Dance improved sharply third-up after racing against stronger, and the blinkers come off, although first time in the ground is an obvious query. Another debutant, Rosehill filly 9. Snitzinnati (Snitzel x Soiree Girl by Rory's Jester) from the strong Gerald Ryan yard trialled well in soft 6 ground, but draws towards the outside; while Scone filly 8. Qukes would need to improve significantly off her debut run at Taree, but is bred to handle rain-affected ground being by Swiss Ace out of a More Than Ready mare.
How to play it: Toulon Factor each way and first four 3,4,14/1,3,4,5,8,9,14/1,3,4,5,8,9,14/ 1,3,4,5,8,9,14
Odds and Evens: Split
There are plenty of options for punters on an eight-race card at Muswellbrook on Tuesday.Credit:Jenny Evans
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1500m)
Doesn't get any easier here, with many having poor form. Newcastle filly 8. Doomsie can strike at second start after working home late at giant odds first-up at Taree, but this is a big drop in quality.
Dangers: Improving three-year-old Rosehill filly 2. Amica ran through the line nicely second-up at Wyong when well specked at a huge price, and draws to get a sound trail. Another Novacastrian, three-year-old gelding 9. Krayzelburg has been very disappointing since spring considering he's jumped anywhere from a $2.50 favourite to $7. Obvious fitness edge, although never seen a rain-affected track, but UK sire was a group 1 winner in soft ground.
How to play it: Doomsie each way
Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1280m)
Very open again, with a stack of hopes. Emerging three-year-old Gosford filly 11. Fonce Factor was terrific first-up here surging home from a mile back to be beaten a long neck, and is bred to handle the wet. Both trainer and rider are under-rated.
Dangers: Newcastle three-year-old gelding 3. Captain Solo only has to handle the ground to be in the finish. Top effort resuming when edged out by more fancied stablemate before rock solid in a handy maiden at Gosford. This is weaker, and sire was high class in the wet. Progressive three-year-old Wyong filly 14. Toguchi hasn't missed a place in three runs so far, just missing two back on a heavy 10 at Taree before grabbed in the final stride last start. Was scratched from Newcastle on Monday after drawing wide, but won't want to drift too far back here from the inside barrier. Scone three-year-old gelding 4. Fender (Toronado x Ceccanti by Arena) has spent plenty of time at the trials winning the latest, and draws a good gate for his debut. Sire was a dual group 1 winner and unbeaten in soft ground. Hawkesbury four-year-old mare 8. Moinda has hit the line hard in two runs back, and already shown a liking for wet tracks. Expect sharp improvement third-up and drawn well from three-year-old Rosehill gelding 7. Vulpes who hasn't done much in two runs back, but chased home smart Opacity who then bolted in a BM 64 at Gosford; while Wyong mare 9. Oakfield Romance has been placed 10 times from 15 starts. Comes out of some handy maidens, and also suited in heavy ground.
How to play it: Fonce Factor each way and first four 3,11,14/3,4,7,8,9,11,14/3,4,7,8,9,11,14/ 3,4,7,8,9,11,14
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 BM 58 HCP (1750m)
Several chances over the middle distance. Emerging three-year-old Randwick gelding 8. Holy Sunday was very good fourth-up at Scone charging home from the back in a dominant win. Extra trip ideal, bred to get through the ground, and should appreciate another long run in.
Dangers: Improving four-year-old Wyong gelding 7. Hidden Hills only has to get through the ground to be competitive despite drawing off the track. Capped consistent form with a dominant maiden win at Taree. Rival Wyong five-year-old 2. Captain's Legend has a poor winning strike rate, but can run a race fourth-up coming back from tougher company. Yet another Wyong gelding 4. Triple Choice is closing in on a win after hitting the line hard in his last two at BM 66 level, although up in weight and a query in the ground. Hard to believe a four-year-old by unbeaten champion Frankel out of a mare by top German sire Monsun hasn't won since landing his maiden as an odds-on favourite seven months ago, but 3. Switching To Win has been disappointing, albeit against stronger opposition, and wet conditions here may provide a little edge.
How to play it: Holy Sunday to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 BM 58 HCP (900m)
Back to the short-course in a thin sprint. Dubbo four-year-old mare 3. Bellszov Bourke won two straight at home before well outclassed in a highway at Randwick. Drops back to a more suitable distance, and while never raced in ground like this, sire produced plenty of good wet-trackers, and dam was a two-time winner in heavy ground.
Dangers: Wyong four-year-old gelding 4. Gidgee Guy has plenty of speed and did win last time here over this trip. Closely related to top selection, and also unproven in the heavy, but dam was a beauty in soft ground. Mudgee nine-year-old 5. Escebee draws wide for his 83rd start, but gave nothing else a chance leading all the way here same grade a fortnight back, and does handle the wet. Central Coast mare 7. Miss Eimar drops back to a weaker race after two strong closing efforts, but draws wide and query in the conditions; while four-year-old Wyong mare 6. Oakfield Gettem can improve fourth-up with a stack of gear changes.
How to play it: Bellszov Bourke to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 BM 58 HCP (1280m)
Another tough and open race, with little heavy track form. Gosford four-year-old mare 2. Take To Heart resumes off a long break and two handy trials, and only win so far came first-up in heavy ground.
Dangers: Warwick Farm mare 3. Fighting Faith has ability and drops in grade, but will need to improve off an ordinary first-up run at Kembla. Was preferred here by leading trainer than Newcastle on Monday. Newcastle three-year-old 7. Salsa Dreaming resumes off two quiet trials, and likes to drift back and finish late, although hasn't fired yet on wet tracks.
How to play it: Take To Heart to win and box exacta 2,3,7
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 CLASS 4 HCP (1280m)
Competitive Country Championship preview, and there's a stack of chances headed by six-year-old Newcastle gelding 1. All From Scrap who hasn't been far away this prep, and can peak here fifth-up coming back from consecutive BM 70 runs at Canterbury. Latest was off the bit before the turn, and got squeezed up early in the straight, but still picked up and ran through the line.
Dangers: Scone four-year-old mare 9. Charlotte's Heart has a smart strike rate, and resumes off two typical held-together trials. Draws to get the right run, and while inexperienced in heavy ground, sire has been a prolific producer of good wet trackers. Lightly raced seven-year-old Tamworth gelding 2. Beauty Best is drawn wide, but only missed narrowly in a BM 84 first-up at home before trialling in smart fashion at Scone, and already a soft-track winner. High-class four-year-old Scone mare 3. Emanuela resumes off a quiet trial, and normally performs fresh. Has more than enough ability, but all four wins from only 11 starts have come on firm ground. Another consistent spring performer, Newcastle gelding 4. Great Danger also resumes off two quiet trials, with a smart fresh record, and drawn to find a nice position on speed. Local four-year-old mare 10. Trophies Galore is another one returning off a break. Something of a specialist here around this distance, and should handle the conditions. Talented Wyong mare 8. Belle De Vega also resumes off two trials, and normally comes to hand quickly; while lightly raced five-year-old Tamworth gelding 5. Pat's Nipper gets in OK at the weights after rider's claim for a highway winner, and can figure second-up, although unproven in the wet.
How to play it: All From Scrap and Charlotte's Heart both to win; and first four 1,2,9/ 1,2,3,4,5,8,9,10/1,2,3,4,5,8,9,10/1,2,3,4,5,8,9,10
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 8 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m)
Tough sprint to finish, and they'll be spread right across the track by now. Warwick Farm four-year-old mare 6. Vinci Lady returns off two smart wet track trials, and beat a handy maiden field on debut as a two-year-old.
Dangers: Smart Newcastle filly 2. Wild Fortune resumes off an open trial, and bolted in on debut at Scone last winter. Untried in this ground, but most of the Not A Single Doubt breed get through it. Improving five-year-old gelding 8. More Than A Samba was solid here last start, and has a liking for rain-affected ground. Rival Scone colt 1. Leo improved sharply into his second-up run here, but likes to sit off the speed, and inside draw in this ground is a query. Tamworth four-year-old and former Victorian 4. Blazing Tycoon resumes off an easy trial, and did win comfortably on debut in soft 6 ground last winter.
How to play it: Vinci Lady to win
Odds and Evens: Evens
BEST BETS
Race 4: (8) HOLY SUNDAY
Race 8: (6) VINCI LADY
BEST VALUE
Race 3: (11) FONCE FACTOR
Tips supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au