ASX trims gains as China coronavirus cases spike

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ASX trims gains as China coronavirus cases spike

Summary

  • Local shares hit record highs but then reverse sharply 
  • China's Hubei province reports huge spike in confirmed cases, deaths from coronavirus
  • S&P 500, DJIA and Nasdaq all closed at record highs again overnight
  • Crude oil, iron ore prices rally 
  • Euro hits lowest level in 3 years

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CPU higher despite mixed analyst views

Analysts are divided on the prospects for Computershare following its latest profit result, seeing its shares tread water today.

Credit Suisse are optimistic about CPU’s outlook, upgrading the stock to buy with a price target of $19.40, substantially higher than the $16.50 level seen previously.

“CPU has established a track record of delivering on its guidance, and we view the FY20 guidance as achievable,” analyst Andrew Adams wrote. “With CPU trading at around a 10 per cent discount to the market, but offering a snap back in earnings in FY21 and continued growth into FY22, we believe it offers good value.”

The same cannot be said for Ord Minnett analysts. They’ve downgraded CPU to lighten with a price target of $16.

“The stock offers only modest organic growth and the risk of earnings misses versus guidance,” it told clients.

Ord’s has friends in Morgan Stanley and Macquarie Research who are also wary about CPU’s outlook.

Morgan Stanley has an underweight rating with a price target of just $14. Macquarie also deems CPU to be an underweight prospect, albeit with a slightly higher target of $16.25.

“Although guidance was maintained this was achieved through some lower quality items,” Macquarie said. “With a material second half skew and some reasonably material known headwinds, the tailwinds outlined by management will all need to come through to achieve current guidance.”

CPU is up 0.6 per cent to $17.56.

Citi expects tailwinds for a2 from coronavirus outbreak

Citibank has upgraded a2 Milk because of the coronavirus outbreak in China.

“We upgrade to buy as we see upside to a2’s second half FY20 sales and margins from factors arising from the Coronavirus outbreak,” Citi analyst Sam Teeger wrote.

“Industry feedback suggests foot traffic in mother and baby stores (MBS) is under pressure from public health concerns, with some stores also experiencing infant formula shortages in cities with quarantine controls.

"Given concerns that logistics could be impacted further if the situation worsens, anecdotal evidence suggests consumers are stockpiling essential items such as infant formula."

Mr Teeger believe this will not only boost sales but also profit margins.

“Household stockpiling could result in stronger than expected sales and consumers increasingly staying at home may reduce the need for 2H20 trade and outdoor marketing activities, and travel restrictions could help the company reduce its travel expenses,” he said.

As such, Citi has upped its price target for a2 to $17.45.

A2M is up 0.3 per cent to $15.21 today.

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More on why the China coronavirus count spiked

The number of coronavirus deaths has surged by 242, double the previous daily record, as hopes of a downturn in infections were dashed by local Chinese health authorities.

The Hubei Health Commission, which has been managing the outbreak in the province at the centre of the COVID-19 epidemic, said it had revised its diagnosis methods and added 14,840 cases overnight.

"Hubei Province has recently conducted investigations on suspected cases and revised the diagnosis results, and newly diagnosed patients were diagnosed according to the new diagnosis classification," the Commission said in a statement released on Thursday morning.

The increase is likely to spur the Morrison government into increasing the length of its 14-day travel ban on all non-Australian residents travelling from China. A final decision is expected to be made after cabinet's national security committee meets on Thursday. The number of confirmed cases in Australia has remained steady at 15.

Eryk has more on this important topic here.

Woodside's profit plunge

Australian oil and gas giant Woodside Petroleum's profit has plunged 75 per cent after the company took a $1 billion hit at its undeveloped liquefied natural gas project in Canada's British Columbia.

The writedown at the Kitimat LNG asset, jointly owned with Chevron, caused Woodside's net profit to sink to $US343 million ($509.1 million) for the year to December 31, from $US1.36 billion in 2018.

Woodside's underlying profit, excluding one-off items, fell 24 per cent for the year to $US1.06 billion, coming in broadly in-line with analysts' expectations. The result was pulled down by weaker oil and gas prices, with revenue falling from $5.2 billion to $4.8 billion.

The company cut its final dividend to 55¢ a share, down from 91¢ a year earlier.

You can read more here. 

WPL is down 0.9 per cent to $33.555. 

Macquarie Group hits fresh highs

UBS has announced a big price target upgrade for Macquarie Group, driven by a rally in global peers and lower discount rates.

Macquarie is now valued at $142, up from $130 seen previously. UBS retained a neutral rating.

“We continue to see Macquarie as a very strong business with unique opportunities. However, it has delivered 21 per cent total shareholder return over the last six months and is currently trading on 16.3 times FY21 estimates,” UBS analyst Jonathan Mott wrote.

“We remain neutral given absolute valuation, however it is a preferred play within the Australian financial services space.”

MQG shares are up 0.6 per cent to $149.11 today.

Stronger futures trading boosts ASX profit

Stock exchange operator ASX Limited has delivered a 1.8 per cent lift in net profit after tax, helped by growing trading in futures contracts and cash markets.

ASX on Thursday reported a statutory profit of $250.4 million, while raising the dividend up 1.7 per cent to 116.4 cents a share.

Revenue was up 7.1 per cent and total expenses rose by 9 per cent, in line with guidance.

Chief executive Dominic Stevens highlighted a 9 per cent rise in the number of daily average futures contracts traded and growing demand for cash market trading. Mr Stevens reiterated ASX would be launching a the S&P/ASX All Technology index later this month.

"This will enhance the profile and understanding of the tech sector in Australia, and increase opportunities for investors."

ASX shares were down 2.8 per cent to $84.26 in afternoon trade.

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Early gains being whittled away

The early gains for the local market, briefly sending the benchmark index to record highs, are continuing to be slowly whittled away.

The S&P/ASX 200 is now up less than 0.2 per cent to 7099.2, more than 50 points off the session high.

Communications, consumer staples and materials are now sitting in the red with falls of 0.6 per cent, 0.9 per cent and 0.2 per cent respectively.

Those pockets of weakness are being offset by utilities which remain up close to 2 per cent. All other sectors are now up between 0.2 per cent to 0.6 per cent, the laggards being financials and healthcare.

Across the broader region, mainland Chinese equities are down between 0.1 per cent to 0.7 per cent, the largest declines being seen for the tech heavy ChiNext.

Japanese and Hong Kong shares are down around 0.2 per cent while those in Singapore are flat.

Like the local market, stocks in South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand are also posting modest gains despite the increased uncertainty caused by updated coronavirus count in China.

Citi slashes TWE target on expected coronavirus hit

Citi Research have slashed their earnings forecasts for Treasury Wine Estates due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China, resulting in a big price target downgrade for the stock.

“After reviewing the potential impact from coronavirus and the prospects in the US, we expect Treasury Wine’s estimate EBITS growth of 1 per cent in FY20 and 5 per cent in FY21, previously 6 per cent and 12 per cent respectively,” Citi analyst Craig Woolford wrote. “We see an estimate $15 million impact from coronavirus in FY20.”

Given the expected headwinds for earnings, Citi now has a $12.30 price target on TWE, down from $13.70 seen previously. It retained a neutral stance.

“Treasury's share price is likely to remain near current levels until coronavirus concerns ease and the new CEO has delivered the FY20 results in August 2020,” Mr Woolford said.

TWE shares are down 5.1 per cent to $11.26 per cent today.

Credit Suisse expects pit stop in carsales.com rally

Credit Suisse has downgraded carsales.com, telling clients that much of the good news that saw its shares rally to record highs earlier this week is now all but priced in.

"We lift our target price to $18.80/share, with the increase reflecting higher outer-year forecasts to capture the new revenue initiatives presented by CAR,” Credit Suisse analyst Entcho Raykovski wrote. “Despite the increase, following the recent rally we view this as priced in and downgrade our rating.”

The investment bank now deems the company as a neutral prospect, down from outperform seen previously.

CAR shares have fallen 0.6 per cent to $18.98. Prior to today’s modest weakness, shares in the company had rallied over 36 per cent in a little over a year.

Downer slides despite mixed analyst views

Downer EDI shares are down heavily, coinciding with a broker downgrade from analysts at Ord Minnett following the release of the engineering and construction firm’s interim result on Wednesday.

It’s slapped the company with a hold rating, down from accumulate, with a lower price target of $7.70 per share.

“The company is battling to turn things around on a number of fronts, including legacy Spotless contracts, a refocus of the engineering, construction and maintenance (EC&M), falling NBN contributions and sale processes for both the mining and laundries businesses,” it told clients.

“Given the task ahead, we see too many risks and question marks around execution to remain positive despite the company’s attractive infrastructure pipeline on the east coast, hence our recommendation downgrade.”

While Ord Minnett has tempered its enthusiasm towards the company, Macquarie and Citi Research analysts have not.

Macquarie has an outperform rating and price target of $7.93 while Citi retains a buy rating with a target of $8.00.

Credit Suisse sits at the other end of the spectrum – it has an underperform rating  with a price target of $6.80.

DOW is down 4.3 per cent to $6.96.

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