Seldom does an incumbent head of government go into the final year of his term with a record popularity rating. US President Donald Trump – slated to visit India later this month – is part of the rare group, an incumbent headed into an election year with a political tailwind making him a clear favourite. The US economy is in the midst of its longest ever uninterrupted expansion which began in mid-2009. Unemployment at 3.6% is close to a historic low and even wages have begun to rise. The trade friction with China has seen de-escalation, and a deal includes a commitment to buy more American merchandise. The setting couldn’t be better.
Giving greater impetus to the tailwind is Trump’s acquittal by the US Senate in the impeachment trial. He has begun to use it to his political advantage in the run-up to what could be a bitterly fought election contest. A measure of his political momentum is captured by a recent Gallup approval rating where his popularity hit a peak 49%, with as many as 63% of voters approving of his handling of the economy.
The reason Trump seems to dominate now also has a lot to do with his opponents. The Democratic Party embarrassed itself with a technical glitch in its first caucus in Iowa, raising questions about competence and also deepening fissures within. Moreover, low turnout suggested a lack of enthusiasm among committed Democrats. Of course, it’s early days yet and as the last election showed, much can change in the last few months – particularly given Trump’s penchant for erratic and disruptive moves. For the moment, however, if Trump steps down in New Delhi soon Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be dealing with an empowered US president, with whom he will likely be dealing next year as well.
