When economists make projections, they leave wriggle room for acts of God, or unpredictable black swan events. The prognosis for the global economy in 2020 was generally positive.
It factored in downside risks from a potential escalation in the Iran–US faceoff, the impeachment of the US president, and others. The novel coronavirus out of Wuhan is a black swan: An epidemic centred in China wasn’t part of any mainstream risk-modelling. As of now, it’s being assumed that global growth will remain positive but there will be slowdown caused by the disruptions of dealing ...
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First Published: Sun, February 09 2020. 22:30 IST
