Who’s better for India: Donald Trump or a Democrat leader?

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit India for the first time since being elected this month. His visit comes against the backdrop of India-US trade tensions, Narendra Modi government’s unhappiness with Trump’s offer of mediation on the Kashmir issue and Democratic Party candidates’ pronouncements on J&K clampdown and CAA. 

ThePrint asks: Who’s better for India: Donald Trump or a Democrat leader?

Expect India-US ties to remain strong, regardless of whether next president is a Democrat or Trump 2.0

Michael Kugelman
Deputy Director, Asia Program and Senior Associate for South Asia, Wilson Center

There is a myth, intensified by Democrat-dominated criticism of India on Capitol Hill, that the Republican Party is friendlier to India than the Democrat Party. This may be true to an extent, even though several data points—from the deeply pro-Pakistan sentiments of prominent Republican lawmakers such as Lindsay Graham and the late John McCain to the large number of Democrats in the Congressional India Caucus—suggest it’s a bit of a misconception.

At any rate, today there remains robust bipartisan support in favour of a strong US-India relationship. On both sides of the aisle, there is an entrenched belief that the strategic rationale for partnership—driven by a shared concern about China, among other things—remains sound.

To be sure, a liberal Democrat in the White House may push India harder on rights issues than would a Republican. This means that one of the pillars of partnership—shared values—may take a modest hit under a Democratic administration. But the other, and more important, foundation of the relationship—shared interests—would remain entrenched.

The takeaway: Expect the relationship to remain strong, warts and all, regardless of whether the next president is a Democrat or Donald Trump 2.0.

Indians might find Democratic approach, which was also the Republican position before Trump, more appealing

Aparna Pande
Director India Initiative, Hudson Institute

President Donald Trump has a transactional approach to international relations. For Indian leaders, interactions with other countries may include useful transactions but the core of the relationship always has a strategic dimension.

Trump approaches foreign leaders like he would a potential customer for one of his properties. He flatters them and makes them feel good. He has done the same with Prime Minister Modi. But at the end of the day, Trump does not always look at long-term strategic partnerships as the way forward for the United States.

Almost all the Democrats, so far, have shown an interest in a long-term strategic partnership between India and the US, based on shared values and the shared need to contain China, and managing a Free and Open Indo Pacific. Democrat leaders have viewed India as a natural ally, the strategic partner of choice and characterised the relationship as the defining partnership of the 21st century.

Indians might find the Democratic approach, which was also the mainstream Republican position before President Trump, more appealing.

Right now, Republicans are a better bet for India than Democrats who have gone too Left

Abhijit Iyer Mitra
Senior fellow, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies

The answer depends on the circumstance India is in. India’s problem is that it is an enforcement deficit state that oversells itself on the international stage. India overpromises and underdelivers every single time. Consequently, Indian diplomacy is transactional and aimed at failure compensation. The defence mechanism is to make our diplomacy sound esoteric, and abstract everything to values and a bright future that never comes.

This, of course, is what Democrats like, unlike Republicans who live in the here and now. So, it’s much easier to fool dewy eyed Democrats whose thought patterns are focused on some fictional future Camelot.

On the other hand, India’s ‘here and now’ transactional diplomacy works for the Republicans. An example of this was how the full force of US diplomatic bullying was employed to help India get the 2008 nuclear waiver from the International Atomic Energy Agency, in return for promises of US nuclear reactor purchases. The problem of course is that India never delivers on its promises and in 4-8 years when Democrats replace Republicans, everyone forgets the promises made.

While the consequences aren’t immediate because of Washington’s inefficient transfer of institutional memory, the cumulative result is severe India fatigue across the board. Right now, even though it safe to say Republicans are a better bet because of absent tangibles, we align much better with their world view than with the Democrats’ who’ve gone looney Left.

By Pia Krishnankutty, journalist at ThePrint

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