Published on : Wednesday, February 5, 2020
Combining Google Trends data with traditional forecast models improved accuracy of predicted tourist arrivals to the Bahamas from the U.S by about 30 per cent, according to a working paper by IMF senior economist Serhan Cevik.
The study tracked Google queries from January 2004 to December 2018 for search terms including Bahamas in combination with words like travel, beach, hotels, resorts and flights.
Tourist arrivals to the Bahamas rose 9.8 per cent over a decade to more than 6.5 million visits in 2018, with about four-fifths of those coming from the U.S. The World Travel and Tourism Council projects tourism’s share of GDP could reach 60 per cent by 2030, and 70 per cent of the workforce, according to the paper. That large footprint makes better forecasting all that much more critical for policy makers, Cevik said.
“While the tourism sector makes a significant contribution to the economy, it is also a major source of volatility due to greater exposure to external factors,” Cevik wrote.
“Therefore, improving the prediction of tourist arrivals is important for forecasting overall economic growth as well as for effective planning and budgeting by the government and the private sector.”
Tags: Google Trends