More than a handful of Democrats will compete with each other and indirectly against a highly controversial President Donald Trump, riding high on his imminent acquittal by the Senate, as the U.S. election season kicks off on Monday night with the
Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar who had been in Washington for Mr. Trump’s Senate trial dashed to Iowa for a hectic weekend of campaigning. Together with former Vice-President Joe Biden and former Southbend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, the five candidates top the long list of Democratic hopefuls.
While Iowa, a mostly white and demographically non-representative state, just sends 41 delegates to the nominating convention later this year (1,991 are required to win) , it provides crucial early momentum to the leading candidates. Since Al Gore in 2000, every Democratic candidate who has won Iowa has gone on to win the party’s nomination.
While Mr. Biden leads in national polls, in the countdown to Monday night, an average of Iowa polls from January 20-27 compiled by Real Clear Politics (RCP), shows Mr. Sanders in first place (23.8%) followed by Mr. Biden (20.2%), who is followed Mr. Buttigieg (15.8%) and Ms. Warren (14.6%).
Survey process
A crucial and closely followed (including by candidates) final poll on Saturday night from CNN/ Des Moines Register/ Mediacom, which might have lent more clarity to this crowded race, was not released due to concerns over the survey process.
At least 40% of voters say there is a “moderate chance” they will change their mind on Monday night, as per a Monmouth Universitsy poll from January, making it harder to tell which way the final delegate allocation will go.
Then there is the process. In general, if a candidate does not get more than 15% of the vote at a caucus location (there are some 1,680 in the state alone), voters there will have to realign with another candidate. This complicates prognostication even further. Given there are around five candidates who could achieve this threshold, it is unclear what the final allocation will look like. For instance, Ms. Klobuchar’s voters could realign with Mr. Biden, as his campaign is hoping, giving him an edge. Third, is the expected record turnout this year (the record is currently from 2008 with Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards on the ballot), as per State Democratic Party Chairman Troy Price. If these are younger, first time primary voters they are likely to vote in favour of more progressive candidates like Mr. Sanders or Ms. Warren.
“If there’s a huge voter turnout, you can turn off your TV — Bernie won,” Mr. Sanders spokesperson Mike Casa said, as per Politico.
Nevertheless, if the higher voter turnout is comprised of more moderate, older voters and independents, they’re more likely to choose Mr. Biden, Mr. Buttigieg or Ms. Klobuchar (and that could, in turn, benefit Mr Biden). The Senator from Minnesota is betting on her organization across the state and making sure she hits counties that flipped from Mr. Obama to Mr. Trump.
Regardless of differences in their tactics in Iowa, Democrats’ strategy is the same in one respect at least: sending out a strong message that Mr. Trump needs to be defeated and that each of them is the best person to do so. They are also being careful to not to push away any potential Democrat voter with intra-party mudslinging.
Call for unity
Elizabeth Warren called for unity among the party when a CNN reporter asked her about Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib booing Hilary Clinton on Friday night at a Sanders event. ”We have one really important job and that is to beat Donald Trump and our best chance to do that is when Democrats work together…,”she said.
There is a Democrat conspicuous by his absence from Iowa. Michael Bloomberg, who has already spent more than $200 million on his campaign, will enter the fray straight on March 3 or ‘ Super Tuesday’ where a large number of states vote.
After Iowa, candidates will face off in New Hampshire, then Nevada and South Carolina. In New Hampshire, Mr. Sanders leads Mr. Biden by a solid margin ( close to 10 points in RCP polling averages). Mr. Biden has a 17 point lead over Mr. Sanders in South Carolina – where he has the support of a large number of African American voters.
No matter who wins the Iowa Caucuses to contend for the Democratic nomination, they will also have to compete against Mr. Trump who has time, money — and now an acquittal — on his side.