Monsoon of 2019 has been very different. After a two-week delay in arrival, its withdrawal from Mumbai and Maharashtra is also delayed and is likely to stretch into October. Light showers are expected to continue till then even as the days are getting sunny in Mumbai.
This year, monsoon arrived in Kerala a week late and in Mumbai two weeks later than the projected onset date. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared on June 25 that monsoon had arrived in Mumbai and entire Maharashtra.
So far, Mumbai has received 3603.7mm rainfall, or 143.35% of annual average. In the 24 hours leading upto 8.30 a.m. on Sunday, Mumbai received only 0.8mm rainfall. There was some scattered rain in Mumbai on Sunday. However, maximum temperatures remained on the warmer side, with Sunday recording 33.3 degrees Celsius. This is three degrees above normal.
Normally, withdrawal of monsoon starts around September 1 from west Rajasthan. However, that has not happened so far this season and the weather conditions are not conducive for it to happen in the next few days. Some of the conditions that meteorologists look at include, absence of rain for five days straight, increase in temperature, and reduction in humidity. IMD has forecast very light to light rains for Mumbai, Thane, Palghar, Raigad until Thursday and has forecast similar daytime temperatures for Mumbai.
When asked about the withdrawal of monsoon from the State, K.S. Hosalikar, deputy director general, IMD, said, “There is depression formed in Arabian Sea, so withdrawal will not happen for next couple of days.”
Mahesh Palawat, vice-president (meteorology and climate change) at private forecaster Skymet Weather said, “Withdrawal of monsoon is delayed this season. Right now, the easterlies are still active and humidity has not reduced and therefore, the weather conditions have not built up yet in west Rajasthan for withdrawal. It may happen in first week of October following which it will cover entire India including Maharashtra. In 2011, withdrawal had happened in late September and in 2010, it happened in October.”
Akshay Deoras, a meteorologist and Ph.D. researcher at the University of Reading, U.K., who has been tracking the monsoon closely, said, “Withdrawal from western Rajasthan is expected to commence by September 27. However, the official declaration might happen only in early October due to which monsoon’s withdrawal this year will be delayed by a month from its normal date of September 1. Thereafter, we can expect a rapid withdrawal of the monsoon from parts of northwest and central India. In Maharashtra, rainfall activity will start terminating from early October and we can expect the withdrawal to start from the second week.”
However, once monsoon withdrawal starts, it is expected to cover large parts of the country in one or two weeks.
Meanwhile, an IMD press release issued at 11.15 a.m. on Sunday said a depression in the Arabian Sea off Gujarat coast could intensify into a deep depression in the next 12 hours, and a cyclonic storm in 24 hours. This could result in lead to light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls over Saurashtra and Kutch.