The monsoon may have less than a fortnight left to officially sign off from the land, but the season looks far from finished, with more surprises in store for East, Central and West India.
The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service suspects the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha-Bengal coasts would continue to witness feverish monsoon activity into September-end, if not beyond.
BUZZ IN EAST BAY
The East Bay of Bengal (off the South Myanmar coast) could see the first in the series of such activity, with an India Met Department (IMD) outlook, too, in agreement with the forecast.
It has located a cyclonic circulation over the Malay Peninsula (across the international waters of South-East Bay of Bengal), which is likely to shift northwards gradually along the Arakan coast.
It may move over to the North Bay of Bengal in around three days, thereby, activating the east-west shear zone monsoon turbulence, with implications for the sea as well as adjoining land during these days.
The IMD has forecast thunderstorms accompanied with squalls (wind speeds of up to 60 km/hr) rolling out over isolated places over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands (South-East Bay of Bengal) for today (Tuesday).
It has issued warnings for lightning flashes over Jharkhand, Bengal, Sikkim and Odisha. Signs of a strong monsoon are also available from the Arabian Sea, with strong winds being forecast over parts of the basin.
Squally weather conditions are likely to prevail over the Andaman Sea, the Comorin-Maldives areas and the adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into parts of both the seas, which are expected to be affected during the forecast period, the IMD said. An almost similar forecast is valid for Wednesday as well.
‘LOW’ RULES SUPREME
The IMD has also pointed to the continued presence of a low-pressure area over North Madhya Pradesh and adjoining South Uttar Pradesh, which is sustaining the rainfall over Central India.
It expects the 'low' to weaken by Wednesday. Meanwhile, the western parts of the rain-facilitating monsoon trough stays in a near normal position.
Its eastern end, though, has shifted northwards (from the Bay of Bengal) and runs towards North-East India.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, with heavy to very heavy falls are forecast over Andaman & Nicobar Islands until tomorrow (Wednesday).
A similar outlook is valid for North Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra for the next three days; while heavy rain is forecast over East Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, coastal Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana for two days.
The IMD has also warned of a likely increase in rainfall over Nepal till tomorrow (Wednesday), which could lead to a rise in water levels in the rivers of East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar until Friday.
MONSOON WITHDRAWAL STUCK
An extended forecast valid until September 24 speaks about the possibility of fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, with isolated heavy falls over East and North-East India, the central and adjoining northern parts of Peninsular India as well as along the West Coast.
Isolated to scattered rainfall has been forecast for the rest of the country, except North-West India, which is likely to receive isolated rainfall as the monsoon prepares to withdraw from the region.
The withdrawal process, which should have started from September 1, is not expected to get organised any time soon, given the forecast for further rain along the way.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast today (Tuesday) over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, while it would be heavy over East Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, the hills of Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Konkan, Goa, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalseema, coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
A similar forecast is valid for tomorrow (Wednesday), with the US agency forecasts suggesting that Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch are likely to receive even more rain during the rest of September.