Opinion | Confidence surprise
1 min read . Updated: 09 Sep 2019, 05:52 PM ISTAccording to Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index, based on a quarterly survey that covers people in 63 countries, India has scaled a six-quarter high
Is Indian consumer confidence down or up? Going by the Reserve Bank of India’s index, this has been a dismal year so far on that count, with confidence among consumers having slipped this July since March to mirror worsening sentiment over the state of the Indian economy. But the findings of Nielsen, a private research agency, offer a surprise contrast. According to its Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index, based on a quarterly survey that covers people in 63 countries, India has scaled a six-quarter high. If this report is to be believed, Indians have a rosier view of their job prospects, personal finances and capacity to spend than is commonly supposed.
What explains the difference? If actual economic conditions influence consumer confidence, then it’s hard not to trust RBI’s numbers. The economy slowed down sharply in the first quarter of fiscal 2019-20, and it must surely have had an impact on retail level optimism. Also, the consumption of various items has shown a downtrend—in some cases, an outright contraction. In such conditions, it’s natural for Indians to turn thrifty.
However, gloom does not pervade every market. Smartphones sales are still in boom, it has been pointed out. Also, it’s not clear if there has been much scaling back of consumer expenditure on eating out and other recreational activities. In all, it seems as if India’s economy is undergoing an uneven slowdown. Some sectors are in distress, while others are cruising along. Surveys on confidence are opinion polls, in a sense, and it’s always possible that what looks like bad news to some is no cause for worry to others.
