Markets are starting to second-guess whether the RBA will cut official interest rates in October. 

According to Australian interbank futures, traders now put the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on October 1 at 62 per cent, down from 74 per cent prior to today's RBA monetary policy decision.

Looking further out, a 25 basis point rate cut remains fully priced by November. A follow-up reduction is also expected in the June quarter next year, taking the cash rate to 0.5 per cent. 

Shares in SpeedCast International are up 19.3 per cent today to $1.14. The stock price is recovering from a low of 76c reached after its full year results.

Substantial holder notices lodged in the past few days suggest the rise is due to stock owners, including Norges Bank (Norway's sovereign wealth fund), recalling shares from short-sellers. This means the short sellers have to buy shares to return stock to Norges Bank. Short positions peaked at 10 million last week, but are now down to 2 million. Norges Bank still owns 13.2 million shares or 5.5 per cent of SpeedCast, according to a substantial holder notice lodged today.

Meanwhile Mitsubishi Financial, which recently purchased Colonial First State Asset Management (CFSAM), today emerged as a substantial holder with 5.5 per cent. It too has lent hundreds of thousands of shares out to short-sellers. By recalling the shares, both Norges and Mitsubishi can sell the returned stock in the rising market to another short seller trying to cover their position.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept the cash rate steady at 1.0 per cent in September, as expected. 

While the bank didn't tweak policy settings today, it retained an easing bias in the accompanying policy statement, indicating a willingness to cut the cash rate again should the need arise. 

"The Board will continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time," RBA governor Philip Lowe said.

Dr Lowe said Australian economic growth in the first half of the year was lower than what the bank expected with "household consumption weighed down by a protracted period of low income growth and declining housing prices and turnover."

The Morrison government's income tax cuts and lower interest rates have not been enough to get shoppers into the nation's malls with retail sales falling and damaging expectations of a post-election confidence boost.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday reported retail sales in July, which analysts and the government had expected to see lift on the back of tax cuts that started flowing into bank accounts from mid-July, fell by 0.1 per cent.

Sales were down in almost every state and territory, led by South Australia and the ACT where they dropped by 0.5 per cent. NSW and Victoria both fell by 0.1 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. Only Western Australia and the Northern Territory bucked the national trend.

Shane Wright and Eryk Bagshaw have more here. 

The Chinese yuan is hitting record lows against the US dollar today, falling to 7.18 yuan per dollar. Markets reacted with shock the first time China allowed its currency to fall below 7 yuan per dollar in early August. 

The Australian dollar has also fallen today, as is often the case when concerns about global growth emerge, and is currently trading at US66.93¢, close to ten-year lows of US66.76¢. 

The dollar will fall further if the Reserve Bank Board announces a cut in official cash rates at 2.30pm today. However, this would be a surprise move with most economists expecting the next cut in October. 

A decision by Indonesia’s government to bring forward a ban nickel exports has pushed the metal’s price up to a four-year high of $US18,620 per tonne and is sending up the stock prices of nickel miners. Shares in Independence Group are up 2.7 per cent today to $6.16 from a closing price of $5.48 on Friday. And shares in Western Areas mining are up 10 per cent today to $3.13 from $2.48 on Friday.

Indonesia imposed the ban to try and speed up the country’s smelter construction, forcing the country to become a steel producer rather than a raw nickel exporter.

Indonesia supplies 9 per cent of the world nickel market and the ban is likely to create a near-term market deficit, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Rahul Anand. He believes Independence Group’s base price should increased up to $4.95 and Western Areas would rise to $3.05. Both stocks are currently over those targets.

“Western Areas is a consistently strong mine operator at Forrestania and will receive more nickel exposure from Odysseus with production starting in 2022-23,’’ he wrote in a note to clients.

Economists expect Australian economic growth to underwhelm again in the June quarter.

Following the release of the final GDP inputs today, both the Commonwealth Bank and Westpac are forecasting a quarterly lift in GDP of 0.5 per cent. J.P. Morgan and RBC Capital Markets have pencilled in a smaller increase of 0.4 per cent.

Economists at the National Australia Bank are less optimistic, forecasting an increase of 0.2 per cent.

"[This] largely reflects weaker residential and business investment and a large drag on inventories offsetting better-than-forecast net exports, with public demand broadly as expected," NAB economist Kaixin Owyong said in a note.

Without revisions to prior data, such a result would see annual growth slow to just 1.1 per cent, the equal-weakest outcome since the early 1990s recession.

Regional markets are mixed in early trade.

Stocks in China have reversed earlier gains with all mainland indices sitting with losses of between 0.1 to 0.2 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the KOSPI in South Korea are flat.

In contrast, the TOPIX in Tokyo is up 0.4 per cent while the Straits Times Index in Singapore has added 0.3 per cent.