Ever since the NDA government reorganized and bifurcated Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories, thus invalidating its special status within the Indian union, Pakistan has been showing signs of frustration as its strategy of controlling the state through violence and terror isn’t working.
For the last 30 years, Pakistan’s ISI and military have been training, supporting and funding low-cost proxy war in Kashmir by cultivating a fringe Islamist section. And over the last decade or so, the ISI also promoted street violence and mob rioting as a cost-effective strategy to generate anti-India sentiment in the Valley.
Islamabad cannot afford to go to war with India over Kashmir, especially with a bankrupt economy and after world powers made it clear that they weren’t interested in intervening in the region. Nevertheless, or perhaps precisely for that reason, Prime Minister Imran Khan and the Pakistani establishment is engaged in a persistent campaign of falsehoods to rile up emotions in Kashmir and escalate tensions with India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi did well by informing US President Donald Trump about Pakistan’s extreme rhetoric and relentless bids to stir up anti-India violence, following which Trump asked Khan to reduce tensions with India.
If the Pakistan Army, under General Qamar Javed Bajwa whose term has been extended by another three years, doesn’t shut down the extreme rhetoric and incitement, it is quite likely tensions in the region will escalate. Given the tough statements coming from home minister Amit Shah about Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, India will retaliate aggressively to any terror strikes with a visible Pakistani hand. Therefore, it is in Pakistan’s own interest that it deescalates and not push the region into greater turmoil.
