Giving the Congress the jitters while hopping from State to State to improve its numbers or reclaim power, the BJP juggernaut seems to have hit a roadblock in Madhya Pradesh.
After it plucked a cabal of 10 Congress MLAs in Goa and toppled its coalition government in Karnataka on July 23, the BJP’s next stop was pitted to be central India. But, a day later, little did its 109 MLAs in the M.P. Vidhan Sabha anticipate that two of their own would support a Bill moved by the Congress.
‘Signal from the top’
Earlier the same day, Leader of the Opposition Gopal Bhargava had insinuated that one signal from the top would be enough to unseat the Congress. However, a local BJP leadership riven by factionalism, absence of a catalyst to set the ball rolling and the State Congress beginning to emerge as a cohesive group, after Rahul Gandhi quit as the party chief, is stalling possible efforts of the BJP to take a shot at power in the State.
Factions, intrinsic to the State’s politics, majorly stem from contesting regional aspirations. But this time, faction leaders Chief Minister Kamal Nath, Digvijaya Singh and Jyotiraditya Scindia — to guard the power the Congress secured after 15 years — have resolved to not let regional differences come in the way of warding off a possible offensive from the BJP.
“Although the factional leaders have a pan-State presence, they maintain a regional clout. As the State government is feeling threatened, factions within it are uniting against the adversary,” said Yatindra Singh Sisodia, director at Madhya Pradesh Institute of Social Science Research, Ujjain.
The loyalty of Congress MLAs is not just with the party but with each of the leaders who have at least 10 MLAs in tow, said Rasheed Kidwai, visiting fellow, Observer Research Foundation. “Therefore, poaching becomes much more difficult in this case,” he explained.
Good connect with MLAs
Moreover, Congress Rajya Sabha MP Vivek Tankha believes that it was in no party MLAs’ interest to let the government fall. “The factional leaders have good connect with the MLAs who they vouch for while seeking a ticket to contest an election. That’s how they remain loyal,” he said.
The Congress, besides its 114 MLAs, enjoys the support of one Samajwadi Party, two Bahujan Samaj Party and four Independent MLAs in the 230-seat Assembly.
‘Don’t ally with BJP’
Asserting that they will continue to back the government, BSP MLA Sanjeev Singh said: “We want the government to complete its tenure. Behenji has strictly told us — don’t ally with the BJP no matter what.”
With former CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan weaned off from the State’s affairs to lead the BJP’s national membership drive, the second rung of leadership appears to be fragmented.
“The BJP needs a local leader like B.S. Yediyurappa with a zeal to attempt a shot at power,” said Girija Shanker, Bhopal-based political commentator. “There was no other power centre in the State when Mr. Chouhan was here. Now, the second rung is grappling with leadership issues and factions.”
Mr. Chouhan has said the government would fall on its own due to infighting within the Congress.
“We’ll have a meeting of the core team soon. We’ll consult the top leadership and seek their guidance in this regard,” said Mr. Bhargava.
“Kailash Vijayvargiya’s political stocks have fallen. Central Ministers Narendra Singh Tomar and Thawar Chand Gehlot are in no mood to return. There is no unity or a sense in the BJP’s State unit to topple the government, so it may not take chances. The BJP does a clean job,” said Mr. Kidwai.