A weakening of El Nino to “neutral”, in combination with “positive” IOD, is what has brought down a 32.8% monsoon deficit in June to below 5% at the close of the first week of August.Good rains in July and this month so far, following a very dry June, have led to a recovery in kharif sowing.
The Agriculture Ministry’s latest data, as on August 2, shows the total area planted under all crops in the current kharif season at 788.52 lakh hectares (lh), which is 6.6% below the cumulative coverage of 844.20 lh last year at this time. Hardly a month ago, on July 5, the gap between the present year’s and last year’s progressive sowing was 26.7%.
The closing of the gap has clearly to do with the monsoon’s catch-up. In June, the country as a whole received an area-weighted rainfall of just 112.1 mm, almost a third below the “normal” long period average (LPA) of 166.9 mm for this month. But in July — the southwest monsoon season extends from June to September — the rains were 4.6% above normal. The current month, too, has registered a 28.2% surplus up till now (see table). The cumulative rainfall deficit has also narrowed from 32.8% in June to 9.2% till July and a mere 4.6% as of August 7.
As a result, there has been a significant pickup in sowings.
Farmers have actually planted more area this time relative to last year under cotton (115.15 lh versus 109.79 lh) and maize (69.27 lh versus 69.03 lh). Expectations of remunerative realisations — kapas (raw un-ginned cotton) and maize are now trading at Rs 5,900-6,000 and Rs 2,200-2,300 per quintal, respectively in most wholesale mandis, way above their minimum support price levels of Rs 5,550 (for long-staple varieties/hybrids) and Rs 1,760 — have, no doubt, played a part here. But the monsoon’s revival has been equally important; acreages under both crops were lagging only till a month ago.
In other crops as well, there has been a significant reduction in acreage gaps over the last one month. The progressive area sown under paddy has been 223.53 lh (down from last year’s 255.48 lh at this time), while at 105.14 lh (113.74 lh) for pulses, 149.41 lh (157.39 lh) for oilseeds and 136.17 lh (145.16 lh) for coarse cereals. The individual crops to have recorded major declines include moong (green gram; down from 29.34 lh to 25.81 lh) and bajra (pearl millet; from 55.08 lh to 49.16 lh), which have their main sowing window in June. In all others, there could be a further narrowing of area deficits in the coming days.
The India Meteorological Department has forecast rainfall during August to be 99% of LPA, which is based on expectations of “neutral to borderline” El Nino alongside continuation of “positive” Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions during the remaining part of the monsoon. El Nino (the abnormal warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean waters, leading to concentrated cloud-formation activity around South America) is considered bad for the Indian monsoon, while a positive IOD (wherein the western Indian Ocean sees higher-than-average sea surface temperatures, with a corresponding cooling of waters in the eastern part off Indonesia and Australia) is good.
A weakening of El Nino to “neutral”, in combination with “positive” IOD, is what has brought down a 32.8% monsoon deficit in June to below 5% at the close of the first week of August. “This is a remarkable turnaround. There has been only one year (2012), where the monsoon ended up being normal despite a massive June deficit,” notes Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet Weather Services Pvt. Ltd.
The private forecaster, however, anticipates a fresh dry spell after about August 13 and which may last for two weeks. According to Singh, “no active weather systems are likely during this period, except for a trough that will shift closer to the foothills and remain confined there”. That could have implications for the already-planted kharif crop.
