According to him, consumer non-durables have been slowing, which is a worrying factor.
The global economy is witnessing a sharp deceleration in growth, said Sajjid Chinoy, chief India economist, JPMorgan, adding that "India is going to remain soft for foreseeable future."
“This is not an India specific phenomenon, if you look at the second quarter of the calendar year globally, there is a sharp deceleration. The US is growing at 3.1 percent in the first quarter, growing at 1 percent in the second quarter,” he said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
Talking about India specifically, Chinoy said, “The reason why people are worried in India is we have seen exports and investments bounce around in the last few years but consumption has been the linchpin of India’s growth and what you are seeing in the last 6-9 months is consumption has come under meaningful pressure.”
According to him, consumer non-durables have been slowing, which is a worrying factor.
“I worry less about the inflationary impact of a bad monsoon. I worry about the depressive impact that it will have on rural demand,” said Chinoy.
A Prasanna, chief economist at ICICI Securities, said the cyclical slowdown has got worse than anticipated.
“I do think the problem in India is also that we do not produce enough data and even the data we produce - one can question the relevance or accuracy in some cases because of which it seems to me that market and everyone is all discounting the same set of data again and again. So the kind of doom and gloom is a bit overdone,” he said.
“Having said that, we do need to see some improvements and some indicators and one of the reasons probably is that a lot of improvement was expected post-election and whatever limited data sets we have, we haven’t seen that and probably that’s why some panic has set in,” Prasanna added.
Source: CNBC-TV 18
