IMD to issue viral infection forecasts

PUNE: As the next step for climate information for health, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) will soon start issuing forecasts for probable increase in viral infections, which are on the rise due to large fluctuations in temperature. Currently, IMD is issuing forecasts of possible outbreaks of dengue and malaria in the country.

Speaking to Sakal Times, Pulak Guhathakurta, Head, Climate Application and User Interface Office of Climate Research and Services at IMD, Pune, said that at present, the department is extending information to the state department and the National Vector Borne Diseases Control Programme (NVBDCP).

“We are issuing a forecast for two weeks regarding possible outbreaks of malaria and dengue, which are based on scientific research about how the caries, in this case bacteria, respond to various factors. Our next step is to understand when flu viral infections are on the rise,” said Guhathakurta. He emphasised that there is a rise in viral infections due to rampant fluctuations in day and night temperatures.

“This can aid the spread of viral infections. Hence, our team of scientists is forecasting viral infections due to weather changes,” said Guhathakurta.

Speaking about climate information for health bulletin for dengue and malaria, Guhathakurta added that the current bulletin is based on Extended Range Weather Forecast issued by IMD. 

“We, right now, issue forecasts for malaria (plasmodium falciparum), malaria (plasmodium vivax) and dengue virus. There is an alert issued, at present, for the states of Punjab, Haryana, major parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, some parts of Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and isolated parts of Chhattisgarh for both types of malaria till August 1,” said Guhathakurta.

He added that so far, there are no states, which need to take precautions for dengue.

“We are issuing this forecast every week. The forecast is for the next two weeks. The forecast aims at alerting the state government and health authorities,” said Guhathakurta.