Bond traders appear certain that the Federal Reserve is on the brink of its first rate cut since 2008. The biggest question, as the market girds for a barrage of speeches by policy makers, is what comes next. Chairman Jerome Powell last week opened the door to a July cut, stressing a cooling global economy and trade friction as drivers. That leaves investors monitoring US retail sales figures this week and the latest economic data out of Europe and Asia to fine-tune wagers on the extent of cuts for the rest of 2019. Futures imply a quarter-point July Fed cut and a total of almost 70bps for 2019.