After a delayed monsoon onset and light showers since July 5, Delhi and neighbouring states are likely to get widespread rains at least for the next four days between July 8 and 11.

While the overall rain in July will be close to normal for the country, it’s unlikely that the rain deficiency in Delhi, Haryana and some other parts of north-west India will be met completely, private met forecaster, Skymet Weather said.

There is 60% rain deficiency over Delhi in the June 1 to July 7 period mainly because of a delayed monsoon onset this year. Normal rainfall expected in this season is 94.6mm while Delhi has received 37.6mm so far.

The monsoon arrived in Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh and many parts of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir on July 5. The monsoon usually hits Delhi around June 29.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials said it’s too early to forecast the rainfall status for the entire month but rain was light over Delhi since monsoon arrived. “Now good rains will pick up, we are expecting widespread rains on July 8, 9, 10 and 11. Parts of Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are already receiving adequate rains. There is a cyclonic circulation over east Uttar Pradesh. Conditions are favourable for rainfall. After July 11, we don’t see any other cyclonic circulation as yet,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist at the National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC). A cyclonic circulation or low-pressure area creates favourable conditions for rain.

The IMD’s forecast also shows no rain on July 12 and 13. “Rains will increase in the next couple of days because of a low-pressure area over Uttar Pradesh. From July 13 and 14, rain intensity over central parts of the country will decrease as the monsoon trough (region of low pressure) will shift to the Himalayan foothills. There will be break monsoon-like conditions but overall rains for July in the country will be close to normal,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, meteorology and climate change at Skymet Weather. He added that “Delhi and some neighbouring states are likely to get deficient rain in July too”.

Weak El Nino conditions are continuing to persist. According to IMD, weak El Nino conditions will prevail through monsoon months. El Nino is a climate pattern characterised by above normal sea surface temperatures over equatorial Pacific Ocean, which contributes to above normal land temperatures in the tropical latitudes. El Nino years in India are linked to below normal monsoon rains and higher-than-normal frequency of heat waves.

The IMD, in its bulletin on Sunday, said conditions are becoming favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into remaining parts of Haryana, Punjab and some more parts of Rajasthan during the next 48 hours. Spatial distribution and monsoon activity over Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh has been described to be “weak” as on July 6 but “active” over Uttar Pradesh.

First Published: Jul 08, 2019 07:47 IST