NEW DELHI: At 13.5, the fear gauge
India VIX might be at its lowest level going into the
Budget Day, but the event still has the potential to thrill investors and how!
History suggests last 10 full Budgets, and the three interim ones, saw Sensex swing in a range of 600 points, on an average, on B-Days.
Earlier this year on February 1, Sensex swung in a 567-point range, before ending the day 0.59 per cent after the Interim Budget was unveiled. The day saw Nifty come closer to the 11,000 mark, only to end at sub-10,900 level.
Last year, when
Arun Jaitley presented his last Budget (Piyush Goyal was made
FM for interim Budget this year), the day saw Sensex gyrate in a 755-point range before settling 0.16 per cent lower. Nifty managed to hold the 11,000 level that day.
In 2015, 2016 and 2017, Sensex swung 678 points, 849 points and 569 points, respectively. A wide range of 803 points on Sensex was observed on July 10, 2014, the year Modi government tabled its first maiden Budget.
Return-wise, the best return for Sensex on a Budget Day was in 2017, when it jumped 1.76 per cent. Among its worst losses on Budget days, the Sensex tanked 5.83 per cent in response to the full Budget of 2009. During the day, the index swung 1,138 points!
Black Budget to Dream Budget: 10 things you need to know about India’s Budget
Where it all began:
4 Jul, 2019
The first-ever Union Budget of Independent India was presented by Sir RK Shanukham Chetty, First Finance Minister, in 1947.
India Colonial Budget:
4 Jul, 2019
The first Budget of Colonial India was presented on April 7, 1860, by the then Finance Minister James Wilson.
Mr. Budget
4 Jul, 2019
Morarji Desai has the credit of presenting the maximum number of Budgets — 10 Full Budgets and one Interim Budget — between 1959 and 1964. He was also a former Prime Minister.
Budget Through the Years:
4 Jul, 2019
P Chidambaram has the refined of presenting nine Budgets, Pranab Mukherjee eight, while Yashwant Sinha, Yashwantrao Chavan and CD Deshmukh scripted seven Budget each while Manmohan Singh and TT Krishnamachari have presented six Budgets each.
The Dynamic Duo:
4 Jul, 2019
Nirmala Sitharaman is not the first woman to present the Union Budget. Indira Gandhi has that credit. She was the first woman Finance Minister in India’s history and presented a Budget while serving as Prime Minister.
Edelweiss Securities said the market seems to have stamped this as a non-event for stocks.
The prevailing valuations are building in reasonable expectations from the government in terms of delivering a pro-growth Budget that would have a positive impact on aggregate demand while not stretching fiscal prudence too far, said ICICI Securities in a note. " Any disappointment on this front could be a dampener for stocks in the near term,” it said.
India VIX, which signals volatility in Nifty for the following 30 days, has plunged between 5 to 17 percentage points on Budget days. It fell 17 per cent in 2017, 13.3 per cent in 2015, 11.4 per cent in 2018 and 10.5 per cent in 2011.
Edelweiss said implied volatility does inch up by 3-4 percentage points before the Budgets and eventually drop on the B-day.
So far, Nifty50 has been lackluster since last month with a narrow range of 400 points and struggling to find direction as it has been held up by top 10-15 names.
Team Sitharaman -- meet the faces behind Budget 2019
Sitharaman's six
4 Jul, 2019
As finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman gets ready to present the first budget of the Modi government 2.0 after a thumping win in elections, expectations run high that it will fire up the slowing economy by unveiling bold reforms. Here's a look at her team led by finance secretary Subhash Garg…
K Subramanian, Chief Economic Advisor
4 Jul, 2019
Subramanian, who obtained PhD in financial economics from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business under professor Luigi Zingales and Raghuram Rajan, will present his first economic survey on Thursday. His prognosis and remedies to kickstart the slowing economy would form crucial inputs for the budget this year.
Subhash Garg, Finance Secretary and Economic Affairs Secretary
4 Jul, 2019
Garg, an old hand at the North Block who has seen many budgets, has a tightrope walk ahead with the economy facing challenges on multiple counts — slowing growth, faltering consumption, and waning private investment. Measures to address these will need to be taken without losing sight of the fiscal consolidation roadmap.
Ajay Bhushan Pandey, Revenue Secretary
4 Jul, 2019
After having shown his mettle at the Unique Identification Authority of India, Pandey’s imprint will be keenly watched on the revenue side. Can he expand reliance on technology to increase tax revenues and taxpayer facilitation. With revenues remaining a concern in the slowing economy as government expenditures mount, he has a tough job in hand to keep pace with spending.
GC Murmu, Expenditure Secretary
4 Jul, 2019
A Gujarat-cadre IAS official, Murmu has served in the depts of financial services and revenue before moving here. Known for his implementation skills, he would have to keep spending in check without compromising the delivery of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s flagship schemes.