The country could get more rainfall in July than anticipated in May, according to Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) M. Rajeevan. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) — an organisation under the MoES, isn’t yet planning to revise its estimate of the monsoon as of May, which remains at 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 89 cm.

“Our extended range forecast system [a monsoon model that gives a forecast over the coming fortnight] shows a rain bearing low pressure system as well as favourable conditions. There has been above normal rainfall so far in July and hopefully should continue. We could get some extra rainfall in July,” Mr. Rajeevan told The Hindu.

Rainfall in June was “significantly below” the IMD’s expectations due to cyclone Vayu that delayed the monsoon’s progress, he added.

June contributes the least rainfall among the four monsoon months and in the last 7 years, rainfall in that month has fallen short in 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018.

In its official update in May, the IMD said July was expected to be 95% of its LPA and August 99% of its LPA.

Until June 29, the country was reeling under a deficit of around 35%, and as of Wednesday, this had improved to 28%. This was due to a favourable monsoon-related circulation that originated in the Bay of Bengal as well as buoyant currents from the Arabian Sea. This would help the monsoon’s surge into parts of northwest such as Punjab, Chandigarh and Delhi and bring very heavy rain in Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and most of southern and east India.

As of last week, nearly 80% of the country’s 36 meteorological subdivisions had posted deficient rainfall. The IMD’s update as of Friday showed that this number had dropped to 60%. On Wednesday, a fourth of the country’s subdivisions got more than 40% of what’s normal for the day.

Private weather forecaster Skymet Weather said in May that June rainfall would be 23% short and July 9% less than what’s normal.