Opinion
Hong Kong is unlikely to win this war with China
London: The people of Hong Kong won a great battle when they forced the Hong Kong government and Beijing to announce an indefinite suspension of the extradition bill last month. Their ability to bring 2 million Hong Kongers out on to the streets, along with the mass protests held Monday on the anniversary of the handover, have stood as a clear repudiation of Xi Jinping's assertion that democracy and human rights are a "Western" concept that will not work in Asia.
But, sadly, although Hong Kong has won the battle it is unlikely to win the war. President Xi has not only suffered his most serious setback since he came to power, he will also feel humiliated by the success that this popular revolt has, so far, enjoyed. One response would be to use yesterday's events as an excuse to clampdown on Hong Kong's long-running protests and to erode the island's special freedoms.
The Chinese government, using the People's Liberation Army, can snuff out Hong Kong freedom whenever it wishes. Hong Kong cannot defend itself. The students and other demonstrators who yesterday managed to barge their way into the legislature have no weapons.
However, the crushing of Hong Kong would not be as easy as suppressing the students in Tiananmen Square 30 years ago. In addition to the hostile publicity and serious damage to China's reputation, it would require the repudiation of the treaty agreed between the UK and China which was based on two systems in one country. The Chinese have always been adamant that they are punctilious in respecting treaties that they have signed.
If China disavows the commitments it has made to protect the freedoms of Hong Kong then Britain cannot just make ritual protests. There would have to be a deep and lasting breach in relations between the UK and China. This would damage our trade with China, but leave China with a reputation as a country that does not honour its obligations.
But there would be two other serious consequences for China if it destroyed Hong Kong's autonomy.
Hong Kong is not as vital to the Chinese economy as it was in 1997, but it is still the most important economic hub linking China with the rest of Asia. Using the military to occupy Hong Kong and eliminate the rule of law would wreck its financial strength.
The other price that China would pay is the self-destruction of its strategy to entice Taiwan to peacefully rejoin the motherland. China, since 1997, has sought to persuade the Taiwanese that if Hong Kong can preserve its freedom while becoming part of China then they can, too. The loss of Hong Kong's autonomy would unite Taiwan in rejecting the poisoned pill that Xi is offering them.
I was foreign secretary during the final stages of the negotiations between China and the UK on Hong Kong. It is good that 22 years after the handover, Hong Kong still enjoys rights and freedoms that are denied to the rest of China's 1.3 billion population. That is to China's credit.
But for many of these years they have been trying to erode "two systems in one country". They have succeeded in some disturbing cases, but they have failed in many others.
China is a great and noble country. Its government's treatment of Hong Kong will determine China's reputation for generations to come. If, with our support, the people of Hong Kong retain their freedom, it will not just be Hong Kong that benefits. The people of China, as a whole, would be able to look to the future with hope and enthusiasm.
Sir Malcolm Rifkind was British foreign secretary from 1995-1997
The Telegraph, London