India’s Bhuvneshwar Kumar watches Mohammed Shami bowl during a training session. (Source: AP Photo/Aijaz Rahi)Bhuvneshwar Kumar or Mohammed Shami? It might be a choice India will have to make soon. Kumar, who is currently recovering from a hamstring strain, took 5 wickets for 95 runs in the first two matches. Shami, who walked into the team as his replacement, has taken 13 wickets for 125 runs in the last three matches.
Shami swayed popular sentiment in his favour with his headline-grabbing 50th over hat-trick against Afghanistan and his five-wicket haul against England, but Kumar’s spell in the middle overs against Australia was no less valuable. As Australia tried to chase India’s total of 352, Steve Smith and Glenn Maxwell had both been looking ominous and had brought the side within 118 runs of victory with 11 overs to play. Then Kumar bowled two inswingers that changed the match. First, he rapped Smith plumb on the pads. Two balls later, Marcus Stoinis’s off stump was broken. When Maxwell also holed out in the deep in the next over, the match was all but over.
In Shami’s case, the new ball spell against West Indies had perhaps an even greater impact than the hat-trick or the fifer(which came at the cost of a lot of runs in the death). Using the age-old formula of cranking up the pace at back of a length, he rattled the Windies top order — snaring Chris Gayle into a pull that could never be, and then conjuring a ‘nip-backer from hell’ to shatter Shai Hope’s stumps. Among many others who have put their weight behind Kumar, and not Shami, for the former’s ability to move the new ball, are Sachin Tendulkar and India bowling coach Bharat Arun. Yet the amount of deviation Shami had produced in that delivery to snuff out hope for the West Indies would have flummoxed all of them.
The cushion of Bhuvi’s batting
The problem with choosing between them is that one has to choose between two of the top pacers in the world based on current form. Pat Cummins is the only pacer, across all teams, who rivals them in terms of ODI numbers this year. Before the England match, Shami was fourth on the list of highest ODI wicket-takers in 2019, with 27 wickets. Kumar was fifth, with 24. Trent Boult and Lockie Ferguson have more scalps to their names, but have played more matches. Of course, Mitchell Starc and Bumrah were both rested this year and have played much fewer matches than all the others.
One possible squad combination that has been heavily advocated is that India play all three pacers and sacrifice one of their frontline spinners.
However, pitches in England have assisted spin this summer. Edgbaston, which will host the second semifinal, had one of the most spin-friendly tracks on offer at this World Cup when Pakistan beat New Zealand. Old Trafford, where the first semifinal will be played, was the venue of Kuldeep Yadav’s ‘wonderball’ to Babar Azam. Moreover, the team management might not want to fiddle with the two pacer-two spinner combination that has served India well so far.
Assuming, therefore, that either Kumar or Shami will have to face the axe once the former is fit, a call needs to be made between how Kohli wants to model his team and what the signs say.
Kohli wants the cushion of Kumar’s batting at No. 8 and this is something Shami’s slash-and-bang approach does not afford. If India find themselves with their batting resources stretched in one of their knockout matches, Kumar’s contribution could be invaluable. For perspective, England’s No. 8, Chris Woakes, has an ODI batting average of 26. Shami’s ODI batting average is 7. Kumar’s is 15.
However, in terms of bowling statistics, Shami has done better than Kumar, not just in the World Cup and in ODIs this year, but also in the IPL. In IPL 2019, Kumar took 13 wickets in 15 matches at an economy of 7.8. Shami took 19 wickets in 14 matches at an economy of 8.7, registering a much superior bowling strike rate. In the ODI format, these figures would translate to Shami leaking around 10 runs more than Kumar every match, but with an increased wicket-taking possibility of nearly 50%.
Shami 2.0
The other factor that could play a role in this choice is fitness. Kumar had had to go off the field against Pakistan, leaving India’s pace resources stretched. Vijay Shankar and Hardik Pandya had got the job done on that day, but Kohli would not want such circumstances to strike again in the knockouts, even in his worst nightmares.
Kumar’s injuries seem to strike him at the most inopportune times. He was sidelined before the 2015 World Cup with an ankle injury. It would have seemed he had managed to ward injuries off this time, but they returned to haunt him in the heat of battle against Pakistan. Last year too, Kumar was bogged down by a back injury, which forced him to miss most of the IPL season and also forced him to withdraw from the Test side in England. And here’s the thing about hamstring injuries – recurrence rates are high and the greatest incidence for re‐injury occurring is within the first two weeks after returning to sport.
On the other hand, Shami might have had his share of injury problems in the past, but he seems to have emerged from his troubles leaner and wilier.
“I have worked hard and improved my fitness. I now try to maintain my diet and training regime consistently. Because I am feeling stronger, not getting tired easily, my speed has also increased,” Shami had said at a press interaction after the West Indies match.
India’s strength and conditioning coach Shankar Basu, speaking at a press conference during this World Cup, had also said there is a definite zing about Shami these days. He spoke about how Shami has integrated training into his lifestyle and how this has made him a ‘changed man’.
“He used to be the last person to get on to the bus, but after personal setbacks and failing that Yo-Yo fitness test, he is a changed man. This is the 2.0 version of Mohammed Shami,” he had said.
The signs seem to point to Shami, but can Kohli make his peace with a four-man tail?
