Helped by the growth in domestic and export markets, India's pharma industry is set to rise by 9-11 per cent over the previous fiscal and it is likely to touch $41.9 billion in FY20.
While on the domestic front, the industry is expected to grow at around 12 per cent and reach $20.4-$20.8 billion during FY20, exports are likely to touch $21.1 billion in this fiscal with a growth rate of 8 to 10 per cent, according to a study by Care Ratings.
“Moreover, the need for affordable healthcare in pharmemerging and developed nations are likely to support exports of branded generics to these countries. Also, rising per capita incomes in pharmemerging nations will contribute to the rise in branded generics exports from India”, Manufacturing & Service Industries: Review FY19 & Outlook FY20 report said.
In addition to this, patent expiry or loss of brand exclusivity is also expected to result in higher exports of generic drugs.
Indian pharma companies are likely to focus on development of specialty medicines or complex generics to augment their portfolio and increase share in world exports.
“This (growth in domestic market) will be backed by growth in presence of chronic diseases, increasing per capita income, improvement in access to health care facilities and penetration of health insurance. These factors are expected to increase the volumes of Indian pharma industry and the volumes are likely to grow faster compared to total domestic market growth rate,” said the report.
However, bringing new drugs under Drug Price Control Order (DPCO) and National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM), imposing price ceiling on drugs and government focus to make medicines affordable are likely to restrict the growth in prices of drugs and, in turn, constrain the rise in value of Indian pharma industry in this fiscal.