Buy USDINR; target of 69.70 - 69.80: ICICI Direct

ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR

Spot Currency

The rupee extended gains for another session to end almost 10-paise higher vs. the US$ amidst weakness in oil prices and domestic yields cool off. It is expected to open mildly weaker today while moves in the CNY remain crucial trigger for EM currencies in the backdrop of consolidation seen in the dollar • The Dollar Index was slightly higher against major currencies tracking higher real average earnings growth. However US May CPI fell to 1.8% v/s expectation of 1.9% which weighed on yields. For EM currencies, Chinese Yuan moves remains a key factor. Currently, it is trading near 6.9180. However, as trade tensions continue to simmer, a move towards 7 cannot be ruled out.

Benchmark yield

Sovereign benchmark treasury yields fell to 7.01% tracking weakness in oil prices as well as hopes of monsoon recovery Also, market participants would remain cautious ahead of the domestic budget • US treasury yields witnessed a mild cool off to 2.12% yesterday . Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of G-20 meeting with focus on development on the trade war front.

Currency futures on NSE

The dollar-rupee June contract on the NSE was at 69.47 in the previous session. June contract open interest increased 0.46% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to find supports at lower levels. Utilise the downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.

Intra-day strategy 

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