The proportion of carbon market experts who expect China to have a nationwide carbon trading system for its power sector up and running by 2021 has almost doubled in the space of a year.

That's according to survey results released today by the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA), a membership organisation for companies working or engaging with carbon trading systems around the world.

The survey, conducted by PwC, attracted responses from more than 100 IETA members. The proportion of respondents expressing confidence in China's ETS launching within the next two years shot up from 32 per cent last year to 62 per cent this year.

"It's exciting to see the national ETS taking shape in China, and IETA is pleased to see our members recognise the importance of the hard work being done there," commented IETA president and CEO Dirk Forrister.

Work has been underway on a national carbon trading system for China's power market for years, with a launch originally promised for 2017. 

Following extensive regional pilots and lengthy work to establish the technical and legal infrastructure, a senior climate official in the Chinese government announced in March that China expected to make its first trade under the impending trading system in 2020. 

Once fully launched it will be the largest trading scheme in the world, covering eight billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year from around 100,000 industrial plants.

Today's survey also revealed industry expectations that prices under the EU's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) will continue to rise over the coming year, with respondents expecting prices to average €27.33 per tonne until 2021, rising to €36 per tonne from 2021 until 2030.

The buoyant predictions come after prices under the EU ETS have risen to a 10-year high in recent months, thanks in part to reforms pushed through by EU to reduce the number of surplus credits.

But the majority of respondents still warned that despite the rising prices, the cost of carbon in the EU is still unlikely to be high enough to align with the goals of the Paris Agreement to limit average temperature rises to "well below" two degrees.

"As 2020 draws nearer, governments around the world will need to raise their ambitions if the Paris Agreement's goals are going to be met," Forrister added. "All the tools to raise ambition are there, in the agreement, but they need to complete sound rules for market cooperation under Article 6 to give confidence that they can afford to reach higher, together."