BSP supremo Mayawati'’ decision to go solo in the upcoming Assembly by-polls in Uttar Pradesh without the Samajwadi Party has baffled the supporters of both parties. The recent results have established that the two parties, though not as successful together as they had hoped to be in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, are in no position to challenge the might of the BJP on their own.
Coming just weeks after the two parties ran a coordinated campaign promising “social change,” her declaration has for the time being put the alliance on the hold.
While Ms. Mayawati said her personal rapport with SP leader Akhilesh Yadav would be maintained, she cited “political compulsions” forcing her hand to temporarily end the alliance.
She, however, kept it open-ended saying the alliance was not permanently over and could be kindled, but with the onus on Mr. Yadav to restore loyalty among his voters.
There could be several motives behind her act. It could be a strategic step to rid her cadre of complacency before 2022 and restructure her organisation to be independent. It could be political disenchantment as the BSP has not been successful with pre-poll alliances. Or it could be mere posturing and warning to her ally to buckle up as both Mr. Yadav and she could be contenders for the CM’s post.
Reignite the rift between the Yadavs and the Jatavs
Ms. Mayawati's decision has, however, sent negative signals to the Yadav voters of the SP. She has almost squarely blamed them for the poor performance of the alliance.
She specifically referred to the weakening of the SP’s Yadav base in its stronghold, blissfully ignoring that her own candidates won in Yadav-dominated seats like Ghazipur, Lalganj and Jaunpur in Purvanchal. It must also be pointed out that the BSP got a comparatively easier share of seats than the SP, which contested on several urban bases of the BJP.
It is too early to rule out anything — the two parties may still come together before 2022 — but by planning to contest the by-polls separately, and given that Ms. Mayawati announced it unilaterally, it could reignite the rift between the Yadavs and the Jatavs that may be difficult to repair for the third time.
In the meanwhile, the two parties have their own sets of challenges to deal with. The recent Lok Sabha election demonstrated that the two parties’ over-reliance on their traditional core voters, the Jatav Dalits and the Yadavs, along with the consolidation of the Muslim voters may not be a fool-proof strategy against the BJP’s larger Hindu caste coalition of upper castes, non-Yadav OBC and the non-Jatav Dalits.
Therefore, both would serve their interests if they actively rebuild their bases beyond these traditional communities and attract the OBCs and the Dalits through a more ideologically compatible plank and fair representation in positions and tickets.
Lack of social width
In 2019, while the BJP and its ally fielded candidates from all sections of the Hindu society, barring the token Yadavs and Jatavs, the alliance lacked the social width in synchronisation with its pitch for “social justice” and “social change.” For instance, the alliance gave 20 tickets to upper castes, who are not their traditional ideological partners, and only 19 to the much preponderant non-Yadav OBCs, a good section of whom have been a part of the genesis of the two parties.
The BJP, on the other hand, has been successful in building a wider net of castes woven together through Hindutva, anti-Yadav and anti-Jatav mobilisation and the appeal of Narendra Modi.
If Ms. Mayawati has to galvanise her party, she needs to revert to the Kanshi Ram-era formula of the Bahujan, mobilising Dalits and OBCs on common grounds of social justice. She has steadily lost support and leadership among these communities over time. Becoming more accessible, connecting with the masses through direct approach, giving visible representation and voice to the OBCs and the Dalits would be a step in the direction to amend that.
Synchronisation of their base communities
For the SP, the task is even trickier. It needs to not only shed the much-detrimental tag of “Yadavad” but also bridge the gap between the Yadavs and the non-Yadav OBC, while permanently tackling the Shivpal Yadav issue.
More than the leadership of the two parties, the success of the SP and BSP depends on the synchronisation of their base communities who have been at the opposite ends of the political spectrum due to their differing loyalties over the past three decades. Judging by the reaction of their supporters after Ms. Mayawati’s announcement, the alliance has been able to build an attraction on the ground. And a veteran leader like Ms. Mayawati would also realise that a flip-flop at this stage would only alienate her and push the much-younger Akhilesh up the sympathy ladder. Mr. Yadav also has the advantage of public memory as he was Chief Minister more recently.
Given that the two parties need to meet the immediate challenge of the Modi-led BJP and to keep the crucial Muslim voters intact, and also to build a strong social alliance in the long-run, it makes little political sense for them to part ways.