Around the time results of the general elections were being announced in India which threw a surprising outcome a week ago, elections to the European Parliament were held between 23 and 26 May. If the Indian general election is the world’s biggest democratic exercise, the European parliamentary elections are considered the world’s second largest democratic election, with more than 400 million voters across 28 member countries eligible to vote to elect 751 members to the European parliament. The European Parliament is one of the highest legislative bodies of the EU and the only one whose members – known as MEPs – are directly elected by the EU citizens. The parliament makes laws which bind the EU as a political and economic block.
The European Parliament elections are often considered mundane but with Brexit and rising populism in the European continent being major concerns, this year’s elections were seen by many as most consequential in years and equally decisive for its future. And voter turnout reflected that: at more than 50 per cent across Europe, it was the highest in two decades. The outcome was equally surprising: the 40-year-old grip of the two Centrist political groups – the centre-left socialists (Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats) and centre-right conservatives (European People’s Party group) – on the levers of power in Brussels was broken as voters turned out in record numbers to bolster radical alternatives like the Greens and the far right. However, much against expectations, a populist Euro-sceptic surge failed to emerge, though far-right populist and nationalist parties are on track to enter the European Parliament in large numbers than ever before. There was also a major success for the Greens across Europe, with the group jumping from 50 MEPs in 2014 to around 70.
EU elections are often used by voters to punish major parties, secure in the knowledge that it will not cause upheavals in their own national parliament. But last week’s election results represent a seismic shift in EU – a shrinking centre of the European Parliament because of large scale rejection of traditional ruling parties across the continent. The collapse of the mainstream parties was the gain of the Green Group, thanks to an environmentalist wave washing over Europe. This was more evident in Germany where the Greens doubled their vote share to 21 per cent and overtook the country’s traditional centre-left Social Democrats in the process. In France and Britain, the Greens also did well, finishing third and fourth respectively. The collapse of the mainstream was also the gain of the pro-EU, pro-business liberal Centrists, known as Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE), thanks to French president Macron’s party, En Marche, joining them.
The two big takeaways from the election results are fragmentation and polarisation. Fragmentation, because the traditional mainstream parties lost support to smaller parties and polarisation, because populists and eurosceptic parties increased their share of seats to 25 per cent, up from 20 per cent five years ago. This is why the elections were seen as a test of Europe’s growing populist movements and a referendum on the European Union as an institution itself. Though the outcome is not as shocking as it was feared, the results spell a European parliament that is going to be far more fragmented than it has been in recent years. As a result, the two mainstream Centrist groups will not be able to form the kind of coalition they had before and, therefore, will need support from another coalition partner or two – may be the ALDE and Greens. This will mean more compromise and room for disagreement on key issues like environment and immigration, as attempts to build consensus will be an uphill task. This could also shift priorities within the legislature and change the type of issues that rise to the fore.
By and large, the European Parliament election results reflect what is happening across Europe. Recent national elections in several European countries have revealed a rapidly fragmenting political landscape: the traditional big parties are losing support and getting smaller, while the smaller parties are getting bigger. Now that fragmentation has hit the European parliament. But the heartening news is that Europeans have voted for the idea of European Union and pro-EU forces still hold a comfortable majority. Those who wanted to support EU have either voted for Centrist parties or voted for smaller parties like the Greens and Liberals and voters on the right went further right by voting for far-right parties. But the bigger point that emerges from the election results is the shrinking of Europe’s traditional parties.
For instance, in Britain, the two principal parties, Labour and the Conservatives, finished third and fifth in European parliament elections, while the newly formed Brexit Party finished first. In Germany, the two Centrist parties lost more than a quarter of their combined seats, while the Greens were the biggest gainers. In France, the old establishment parties finished fourth and sixth, while the right-wing National Rally finished first. In countries where the populists were already in control, like in Hungary, Italy, and Poland, they did very well. But in countries where they did not have enough influence, they finished behind pro-EU parties. Britain, which was not supposed to take part in the election but ended up being part of it because of delayed Brexit, was an exception. However, even in Britain, parties opposed to leaving the EU jointly won far more votes (47 per cent) than Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party (31 per cent).
Though much of Europe has heaved a sigh of relief with the results of the election, still the bigger story is that across Europe, the US as also in India, dissatisfaction with the status quo remains the dominant political mood. That’s why many Centrist European parties which were powerful just a few years ago have lost support and now finish outside the top two spots. It is why Donald Trump won the US presidency as a Republican candidate. In India, the world’s largest democracy, the decisive re-election of Narendra Modi, a right-wing Hindu nationalist, also echoed the rise of populists around the world. Whether in Europe, the US or India, what’s sweeping around the world is the desire for change. Therefore, the Centrist parties – the Democrats and Socialists – will need their own plans to remain relevant in a political shift which is undoubtedly underway around the world.
The writer is an independent Mumbai-based senior journalist.