ASX set to kick off June with losses

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ASX set to kick off June with losses

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It's PMI day today and the data for Australia is out. Australian Industry Group data showed manufacturing PMI declined 2.1 points to 52.7, with new orders down 3.3 points to 52.3 but employment up 4.2 points at 55.6.

Japan, China, Europe, Germany, the UK, Canada and the US are all set to release PMI data on Monday.

NAB said that its overall ISM model points to a 54.3 read on a headline basis, higher than the current market consensus of 53.0 and up from April's 52.8.

"Driving the rebound in our model is the mild uptick in the NY Empire, Philly Fed and Chicago PMI, while other regional surveys were mostly flat to lower," NAB's economics team said.

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After US president Donald Trump shocked the world with his Mexico tariff plan on Friday, traders have been swift to price-in what appears to be a considerable global economic slow-down and ramp up expectations for interest rate cuts, says IG's Kyle Rodda.

Friday's price action ought to be considered knee-jerk, given how unexpected the Mexico-tariff news was. But in saying that, the developments did seem to accelerate a process already in motion, following May's deterioration in US-Sino trade relations.

Ultimately, markets have once more increased their bets of interest rate cuts from the world's largest central banks. Most pertinently: in the minds of market participants right now, a rate cut from the US Fed is all but assured by year end.

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Investors are keeping a wary eye on the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China.

Over the weekend China blamed the United States for the latest breakdown in trade talks, taking aim at logistics giant FedEx as it steps up retaliation for US sanctions on tech giant Huawei.

China has begun an investigation after FedEx apologised to Huawei for delivery errors that saw two packages being shipped from Japan to Huawei in China diverted to the US.

China's news agency Xinhua said FedEx had violated Chinese laws and regulations and late last week Beijing flagged it will soon release a list of other "unreliable" companies, organisations and individuals that is expected to target US firms.

The latest escalation of tensions between US and China comes after US President Donald Trump reportedly ignored advice of his top advisers by announcing tariffs on all imports from Mexico as punishment for the country's failure to stem illegal migration into the US.

India is also now in the trade firing line, with the Trump administration announcing on Friday that it would no longer recognise India as a developing country, a status that exempts nations from US tariffs.

Here's Michael Smith with the latest.

Here's how things stand:

  • ASX futures down 24 points or 0.4 per cent to 6378
  • AUD +0.3% to 69.34 US cents
  • On Wall St: Dow -1.4% S&P 500 -1.3% Nasdaq -1.5%
  • In New York: BHP -1.1% Rio -1.7% Atlassian -0.3%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 -1.1% FTSE -0.8% CAC -0.8% DAX -1.5%
  • Spot gold +1.3% to $US1305.34 an ounce
  • Brent crude -3.6% to $US64.49 a barrel
  • US oil -5.7% to $US53.38 a barrel
  • Iron ore -2.2% to $US101.60 a tonne
  • Dalian iron ore -2.5% to 716 yuan
  • LME aluminium +up 0.7% to $US1795 a tonne
  • LME copper -0.4% to $US5830 a tonne
  • 2-year yield: US 1.92% Australia 1.11%
  • 5-year yield: US 1.91% Australia 1.16%
  • 10-year yield: US 2.12% Australia 1.45% Germany -0.21%
  • 10-year US/Australia yield gap: 67 basis points

On the economic agenda:

Local: AiG performance of manufacturing May, CoreLogic dwelling prices May, MI inflation May, ANZ job ads May, Business indicators first quarter.

Overseas data: China Caixin manufacturing PMI May; Japan capital spending first quarter, Nikkei PMI manufacturing May final; UK Markit manufacturing PMI May; US Markit manufacturing PMI May final, ISM manufacturing May, Construction spending April

Stocks to watch:

  • AGL Energy downgraded to neutral at Goldman
  • Boral downgraded to underperform at Credit Suisse
  • Eclipx upgraded to outperform at Credit Suisse
  • Iluka downgraded to hold at Morningstar
  • St Barbara upgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse

Good morning and welcome to Markets Live for Monday.

Your editor today is Sarah Turner.

This blog is not intended as investment advice.

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