Defections add to Mamata’s worry in Bengal

There are no signs of the saffron wave that swept India subsiding soon. Regional parties which miscalculated their power and influence might be next in line to be engulfed by the wave. A classic case is West Bengal where defections have already started. Close to 75 councillors and four MLAs have left the Trinamool to join the BJP. And the possibility that more Trinamool lawmakers could join the saffron party has kept Mamata Banerjee’s party on tenterhooks.

Bengal politics has always been marked by tectonic shifts wherein entire voter bases—irrespective of class, creed or community—have deserted parties. It happened in 1977 when the ‘Bamfront’ comprising the CPM, All India Forward Bloc, RSP, Marxist Forward Bloc, RCPI and Biplabi Bangla Congress swept to power in the state with Congress cadres joining the bloc en masse. The Left Front ruled Bengal for 34 years over seven consecutive terms till 2011, when Mamata, encashing the anger over lawlessness and the Singur issue, swept to power. It was then Trinamool’s turn to benefit from en masse defections from the Left and Congress. The BJP’s rise is as spectacular as Mamata’s in 2011. This shows that there is a rising resentment against Mamata’s government which has lately been marked by political violence, rule of criminal gangs and an explicit bias for minority sections, which led to a total consolidation of Hindus. The defections of well entrenched Trinamool MLAs—especially from minority communities—is likely to help the BJP expand faster.

The Congress governments in MP, Rajasthan and Karnataka are also on the edge. In MP, the Congress, divided between Kamal Nath, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Digvijaya Singh loyalists, failed to get together and work towards success. Similarly, in Rajasthan, an unspoken feud between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot’s social base and legislators led to the party’s poor performance in the Lok Sabha polls. In Karnataka, the non-performing, ever fighting lawmakers of the JD(S)-Congress government face a determined BJP. The instability could only give ideas for the BJP to bring the government down sooner.