IMD will issue forecast for the rainfall during the second half of the season in the end of July 2019
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has maintained its early forecast of normal south-west monsoon (June-September) rainfall over the country in 2019.In its second long-range forecast released, the IMD predicts rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2019 southwest monsoon season (June to September) most likely to be normal (96% to 104% of long period average (LPA)).
Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of the LPA with a model error of 4%.
Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 94% of LPA over North-West India, 100% of LPA over Central India, 97% of LPA over South Peninsula and 91% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of 8 %.
The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 95% of its LPA during July and 99% of LPA during August both with a model error of 9 %.
The current weak El Ni conditions over Pacific are likely to continue during the monsoon season with some possibility of these conditions to turn to neutral ENSO conditions during the latter part of the monsoon season.
IMD will issue forecast for the rainfall during the second half of the season in the end of July 2019.
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